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3C Nailed the Semis Bounce, But Breadth Says This Is Still Just an Oversold Rally

3C signals were right on the money and in the right places: Semis, Mega Caps, and Tech broadly (Nasdaq over S&P; S&P over Equal Weight S&P, DJIA, and Small Caps). 3C highlighted some interesting early buying activity in Semis/Mega Caps/Tech on Tuesday, though the divergences were only just beginning at that point. As noted in […]Read More »

Wartime Correlations Are Back, And AI Stocks Are Most Exposed

Wartime correlations that the stock market broke with when the ceasefire went into effect, are back in play, but it’s a fairly new development, just starting to realign since mid-May. SPX (15M) and WTI crude (inverted) in purple. On this chart, WTI’s strength is still leading the SPX a bit lower. SPX (15M) and the […]Read More »

Tape Bombs, Ceasefire Hopes, Mega Cap Weakness, & Emerging Private Credit Stress

The first half of the day was fairly quiet, then a cornucopia of tape bombs hit, culminating after the close with Israel’s Channel 12 TV reporting that a ceasefire period of one month will be announced shortly. This afternoon, President Trump said: “The leaders are all gone, nobody knows who to talk to, but we’re […]Read More »

Sell-Off: Energy War Escalates, Inflation Hotter, Fed Hawkish Repricing

Tuesday’s dull, low conviction tone flipped on a dime today. Israel struck upstream Iranian energy assets ( Iran’s South Pars gas field; the largest in the world) for the first time. Iran vowed retaliation against numerous Gulf energy sites, previously thought to be “safe,” or “off limits, following the Israeli strike on the gas field. […]Read More »

Daily Wrap - Falling Three Methods?

Hi. The market is getting interesting so I thought I’d send you tonight’s Subscriber post. Enjoy. I hope there’s something in here that helps you. I’m not even touching the cornucopia of China/U.S. trade tussle headlines today—or the Fed speakers, for that matter. Sure, they swayed markets and flows, but we can’t predict what Bessent, […]Read More »

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