3C Nailed the Semis Bounce, But Breadth Says This Is Still Just an Oversold Rally

3C signals were right on the money and in the right places: Semis, Mega Caps, and Tech broadly (Nasdaq over S&P; S&P over Equal Weight S&P, DJIA, and Small Caps). 3C highlighted some interesting early buying activity in Semis/Mega Caps/Tech on Tuesday, though the divergences were only just beginning at that point.

As noted in Wednesday’s Afternoon Update, the buying intensified before and during the chaos of Fed Chair Warsh’s press conference. Here’s an excerpt from that update, written while the Philly Semiconductor Index was down over 5%:

“The gist of what I was seeing on the charts is that semiconductors look set for some kind of oversold bounce or oversold rally and that includes the tech sector. The Nasdaq 100 also, whereas the S&P didn’t look nearly as good on these short term 3C charts that are starting to move. Small caps didn’t look nearly as good, in fact they look worse.”

While earnings results and guidance from Microsoft (MSFT +15.5%) and Lam Research (LRCX +17.98%) provided a strong bullish catalyst, 3C had already picked up the buying two days before those companies reported. That’s the beauty of 3C: its power to contradict price. SOX was down over 5% and 3C saw the buyers stepping in. Exactly as 3C forecast in the excerpt above, Semis led the rally. The Nasdaq gained twice as much as the S&P, and even more versus Small Caps.

Another accurate call was the fading of the Broadening Trade; the Equal Weight S&P (-0.2%) had been outperforming the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 (+1.66%). The Equal Weight index underperformed the benchmark badly Thursday – by 186 basis points.

(5M normalized)

There was an element of the concept, “Beware Fed knee-jerk reactions, they’re often retraced,” in play too, at least in equities. The retracement of knee-jerks did not extend to the U.S. Dollar or the bond market.

SPX (2M) It’s been a couple of years since I’ve seen a knee jerk reaction this volatile. Powell went to great lengths to communicate and not surprise markets. Chair Warsh is introducing a level of uncertainty around Fed policy that we haven’t seen since 2018 when Powell was adamant the market wasn’t going to push him around, and hiked twice into a growth slowdown. The market reacted with selling. The S&P crashed -20% between October and Christmas Eve. The rate hikes ended and Powell was a very different Fed chair after that.

It also helped that the S&P was testing its neckline as support, the Nasdaq had fallen for six straight sessions (its longest losing streak since 2016), oil prices behaved, SK Hynix held above its 200-day EMA, and Microsoft (MSFT +15.51%) and Lam Research (LRCX +18%) provided strong earnings.

Another high-profile casualty of the AI trade just hit the wall:

Situational Awareness, a high-flying AI hedge fund run by 25-year-old former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, just got margin-called into oblivion: after a 439% first-half run and peak AUM north of $20 billion, its leveraged long-AI infrastructure stocks (chips, memory, data-center related names, cloud providers, etc.) / short-software book imploded in the July rout, forcing a full fire-sale of its entire ~$16 billion public portfolio to Ken Griffin’s Citadel in a single block trade. Archegos the sequel.

Economic Data/News:

The Advance Q2 GDP report showed real GDP increasing at an annual rate of 1.5%, below consensus of 2.3% on the heels of a 2.1% increase for Q1. The GDP Price Index increased by a whopping 6.3% (consensus: 3.7%) following a 3.6% increase in Q1.
- While the headline GDP print is disappointing, it is not as soft as it appears as net exports subtracted 1.01 percentage points. The bright spot was the pickup in personal spending (+3.2% from +0.5%) and final sales to private domestic purchasers (+3.9% from +1.7%).
Initial jobless claims for the week ending July 25 increased by 9,000 to 197,000 (consensus: 203,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending July 18 decreased by 7,000 to 1.782 million.
Personal income increased 0.2% month-over-month in June (consensus: 0.3%), personal spending increased 0.3% (consensus: 0.4%), the PCE Price Index was down 0.1% (consensus: -0.1%), and the core-PCE Price Index rose 0.1% (consensus: 0.2%). On a year-over-year basis the PCE Price Index was up 3.7% versus 4.1% in May, and the core-PCE Price Index was up 3.3% versus 3.4% in June.
The Bank of England passed on a rate hike too, but also contentious with a 6 to 3 vote to leave its key bank rate unchanged at 3.75%.

Averages

While the Nasdaq-100 outperformed for clear reasons, both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average fully retraced the initial FOMC knee-jerk reaction. For the past 15 years or so I’ve issued the same warning ahead of every FOMC or Fed event, which was repeated on Tuesday: “Beware the initial knee-jerk reaction, they’re often wrong/retraced.” There were a lot of examples of this across the equity market.

If there’s a dark cloud hanging over the day’s acton, S&P posted a nice gain, but with negative breadth. Just 193 S&P components closed green. The Nasdaq-100 saw just 51 components close higher. The Dow was similar with less than half (13) of its 30 components closing higher.

S&P-500 ⇧ 1.66 %
NASDAQ ⇧ 3.36 %
DOW JONES ⇧ 1.19 %
RUSSELL 2000 ⇧ 1.37 %

SPX (30M) Price action offers little guidance on upside targets for this bounce, though the top of the gap near $7,500 looks like an easy objective and the S&P has had an affinity for $7500. It’s near the 50-day SMA where we saw a lot of distribution a week or two back. There is some overhead resistance around the $7,450 area that will need to be cleared first. Price is attracted to open gaps like a magnet.

As mentioned Wednesday, there are a lot of technical and price support levels in play, especially the 100-Day SMA.

NDX (Daily w/ 50 & 100-day) – Nearing that backtest of the neckline. We saw a LOT of distribution at the 50-day (orange box), and as the NDX became oversold, support at the 100-day. Technical levels operate the same as price support and resistance. Once support is broken, it typically becomes resistance and vice versa.

When I first fumbled into trading, I started with fundamental analysis, before shifting to technical analysis. Although technical analysis had existed for well over a century (longer in some cases like Japanese candlesticks), it was still relatively unpopular at the time. I distinctly remember someone asking me, “How can a bunch of squiggly lines possibly tell you where price is going?” Ironically, the more people who adopted technical analysis, the more those technical levels became relevant. However, I’ve spent a lot of time looking back at the Dow from 1916 on and I can say with certainty, price respected the same moving averages that it does today. It’s odd.

For the Nasdaq-100 (15M) a backtest was an easy call as it’s one of the most common occurrences after the initial break of a neckline ($28,200, though it’s an area, not an exact level). I think the gap above ($29,000) could even be filled. It’s just ~3% higher and wouldn’t threaten the big picture toppy pattern in the least.

NDX (2H) theoretical gap fill. I’ll be watching 3C carefully at or above the neckline. It gave us a good signal for this bounce.

Of all the averages, Nasdaq/QQQ has the strongest 3C bounce signal.

QQQ (1M) – However, if this were the full extent of the 3C signals, I wouldn’t be expecting the kind of gap fills I mentioned above. This is not an especially impressive signal by any means. The stronger positive divergences are concentrated in the semiconductors and mega-caps. This chart may improve from here, but at present it supports the view that we are looking at an oversold bounce rather than something more substantial. And this is the strongest of the major averages!

I don’t have strong conviction when it comes to price targets for the DJIA and Small Cap yet. they have the least exposure to Semis/Tech (Dow because it’s a price weighted index, and small caps don’t have large cap tech exposure).

The DJIA’s very ugly candle on Wednesday held support at the 50 day and tested it again today, leaving a bullish hammer and an inside day. I’ll be interested to see if price action over the next couple of days stays within Wednesday’s large red candle. If so, that could be a bearish development, for example something along the lines of a Falling Three Methods bearish consolidation. Near-term the 50-day (yellow) is the key level, but ultimately $50k is the Dow’s biggie, and notice the 100-day (blue) creeping up to converge with $50k. I wouldn’t be surprised to see $50k tested before these topping patterns’ measured moves are complete. A break of $50k is a whole different ball game for the Dow.

IWM (Daily) – Price action since July began has been “Meh.” Note the bear flag-like consolidations in price, similar to the S&P coming into last week and this week. They’re not true bear flags, but they do have the same low conviction and bearish bias, just a bit more subtle. Price is putting up a fight to hold the 50-day.

Small Caps did benefit from the short squeeze we’ve been looking at as my Most Shorted Index shows hedge funds got a little too aggressive, or over their skis in shorting. Here’s the normalized performance as of Wednesday’s open…

IWM/MSI (5M) – That’s the largest short squeeze in 4 months.

Small Caps really aren’t a point of focus for the market at the moment with AI, Hyperscalers and Semis in the spotlight, but with high rates (some hitting near 2 decade highs) I think Small Caps are going get more volatile. They tend to be more sensitive to high rates than the other averages. Quite frankly, I’m surprised they’ve held up as well as they have thus far, but price action hasn’t been inspiring.

VVIX’s (-12.85%) relative performance called 3 or 4 intraweek pivots last week. It’s done a good job calling the market’s support the first half of this week, and even today’s rally.

It’s important to recognize that there can be multiple trends at the same time in the same asset. For instance, gold is in a primary downtrend, but it has short term bounces from time to time. VVIX’s short-term relative performance is increasingly ugly, especially today, which suggests the market has more room to run.

SPX (1M with price inverted for context) & VVIX – This trend aligns with this week’s price action and today’s bounce. VVIX’s 50-Day is ~1% below. It will be interesting to see if the short-term trend firms up there.

The longer-term trend is still one of relative strength, aligning with the topping patterns in the averages and areas of AI/Tech.

(5M) – Today’s weakness didn’t change that. Multiple timeframe analysis is a key concept that will enhance anyone’s trading/investing, so long as you align the timeframes you’re watching with your investing style.

VVIX’s relative performance leads VIX’s, and VIX’s can lead market pivots. It has taken a while for VIX to catch up to VVIX’s stronger relative performance, but it’s getting there. VIX’s (-16.1%) short-term relative performance was also weak today, but to my eye, a little better than VVIX lately.

(1M)

I believe that if VIX clears $24-$25, it’s really going to move.

The Absolute Breadth Index continues to suggest that something big is coming in volatility. ABI posted ANOTHER signal today at 11.66 and was as low as 9.10 intraday.

That’s 16 signals in 18 days and 29 since the topping patterns first started in May. Off to the left you can see the end stage of the Q3/Q4 H&S patterns, most acute in mega caps, and the measured move down to March’s low.

Here’s the chart of MAGS with the ABI signals from Q3/Q4 2025 into 2026…

(daily) note the ABI signals clustering around the left shoulder, the head, the right shoulder, and around the break of the neckline.

Here’s the same chart with the ABI signals overlaid on VIX…Just about every cluster led to at least a 50% increase in VIX, and some as much as 160%.

S&P sectors

Five of 11 sectors closed green. Most of the morning it was “the Tech sector show” as it was the only sector in the green, while the other 10 were red. Buying began to broaden out in the afternoon trade as traders gained some confidence, sending the major indices to new session highs. The added lift was fueled by gains in the industrials (+1%), financial (+0.6%), and energy (+0.55%) sectors, all of which had been in negative territory earlier in the day. The consumer discretionary sector (+0.7%) was the next best-performing sector after technology. While tech soared +5.5%, no other sector gained more than 1%.

Defensive sectors lagged as risk sentiment picked up with more and more buyers dipping their toes in the water. The main pockets of weakness were the communications (-2.7%) ,and defensive consumer staples (-2.2%), health care (-1.65%), and real estate (-1.45%) sectors.

As 3C suggested Wednesday, Semiconductors (SOX +8.2%) soared. However, some context is vital.

(60M) From their record high and H&S’ pivot high of the head, today’s strong bounce was just another lower high in the sub-intermediate downtrend. In other words, the huge gain did nothing to change the trend…not even close. It is interesting to see price respecting the various necklines that were adjusted lower as price action dictated.

SOX is another instance of distribution at the 50-day, and support at the 100-day, which happened to converge with the neckline.

(daily) The 50-day in yellow and 100-day in blue. There are a lot of assets, sectors and averages interacting with the 100-day.

3C looks fine for Semis to add to the bounce.

SMH (1m) Today didn’t add anything to 3C’s positive signal, but it certainly didn’t deteriorate either.

Intraday price action retained a bullish vibe through the close…

(5M) I love how price sat on top of $12,000 and consolidated (bullish bias) the rest of the afternoon. That’s more validation of the levels. $12,000 seems like a common sense price target. The measured move based on today’s price action comes in at $12,250 assuming the consolidation stays where it is. If price consolidates a little longer in a small bull flag and sloped down so the upper trend line at $11,200, then the measured move would be $12,000 and the world would make perfect sense.

I’ll monitor price action and 3C for any developments that might change that projection. By the way, a move to even $12,250 would still be another lower high in the downtrend.

Mega Caps (MGK+2.75% & MAGS +2.15%) were the second area where 3C lit up Wednesday.

Mega Cap 300 Growth Index / MGK (30M) – The group had a good day, but didn’t stray far from the neckline. Price action isn’t clean with defined bullish consolidations so the measured moveis a little more art than science, but I think 1) an attempt to fill the gap makes sense. If we treat the last week’s price action along the neckline like a small double bottom, then I get a measured move price target around $88.25.

The short-term 3C charts looks great still.

(1M) All things being equal, I think the target level is reasonable. Like SOX, it would be a bounce to a lower high within the downtrend, but could set up a nice opportunity to sell into strength when 3C starts turning south.

MAGS is a bit of an odd pattern. It’s toppy, but not typical. I have the trend line at the same level as the Q3/Q4 H&S in mega caps, not out of laziness, but because that’s what the price action and indicators point to. It’s coincidence, but an interesting one. MAGS 3C charts are good enough to continue the bounce, but not as clean as MGK’s.

(30M) This view is the right side of the topping pattern. I’m not including the whole pattern because I want you to be able to see today’s trade. Price has been trading along the neckline for 6 days. That is price telling you that this is an important level and giving a lot more credibility to this being the neckline. There’s a big gap here and gaps love to be filled. If I am a little bit generous and liberal with the measured move, I can get a target at $66.25, which fills the gap.

By the way, price retraced the FOMC knee-jerk reaction almost perfectly today.

Materials ⇩ -0.19 %
Energy ⇧ 0.53 %
Financials ⇧ 0.56 %
Industrial ⇧ 0.98 %
Technology ⇧ 5.50 %
Consumer Staples ⇩ -2.16 %
Utilities ⇩ -0.56 %
Health Care ⇩ -1.64 %
Consumer Discretionary ⇧ 0.70 %
Real Estate ⇩ -1.44 %
Communications ⇩ -2.68 %

Internals

Advancers (1527) held a slight edge over Decliners (1216) on lighter Volume of 1.29B shares.

There was no Dominant price/volume relationship. Index components were pretty evenly spread between the four categories. There’s nothing remotely close to 1-day overbought internals.

Breadth oscillators are mid-range (not close to overbought or oversold).

Broadening trade? Please. Everything looks uglier on the right side of a topping pattern. Today makes the point perfectly: every major average finished up between 1.2% and 3.3%, and all had negative breadth.

Half of all NYSE-listed stocks are trading below their 200-day moving average, a proxy for their primary (long-term) price trend.

Treasuries

The interest-rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield rose +0.17 basis points to 4.238%, while the benchmark 10-year yield increased 4.51 basis points to 4.667%.

The 10-yr yield’s chart continues to look scary bullish.

(2H)

And even scarier…The start of a breakout from a huge consolidation on the weekly chart.

The 30-yr yield is hovering at the highest level in ~19 years.

(2H) that should read “2007”, not 2006. But Still!

And perhaps scarier…(weekly) – You probably know that pattern: Bullish Ascending Triangle. The 30-yr has just peaked above it. It’s not a definitive breakout yet, but darn close. It’s not a good time for the market to lose confidence in the new Fed chair.

When Warsh was asked about inflation/high rates, he was asked at least twice, “What are you waiting for?”

I’ve shown this chart several times before. The Fed’s rate cycle is straightforward: it hikes rates, then pauses, and eventually cuts rates. After that, the entire sequence repeats – because it mirrors the underlying economic cycle. The bond market actually tells them what to do.

Take the Fed-sensitive 2-yr yield, throw it on a chart of the Effective Fed Funds Rate and you’ll see what I mean.

The Fed funds Rate is blue and the 2-yr yield is red. When the 2-yr yield crosses the Fed funds rate, you pretty much know what’s coming next. Unfortunately this chart is so small, over such a long period of time, you don’t really get the full impact of it. For example the last rate hike cycle after inflation from Covid saw the two year yield cross below the Fed funds rate, and then the Fed paused rate hikes. You can see the Fed funds rate go sideways. That sideways period is about a year long, then they start cutting rates. Hike. Pause. Cut.

The Fed has more economists than any organization in the world yet the two year yield tells them exactly what to do and when.

If we look closer,

What is the bond market telling the Fed right now?

The 2-year yield sits roughly 60 basis points above the effective funds rate, equivalent to a little more than two 25 bp hikes. That is precisely why reporters such as Steve Liesman keep asking Chair Warsh, “What are you waiting for?” and why three FOMC members dissented in favor of a rate hike on Wednesday.

Notice the timing of the sharp rise in the 2-year yield. Hint: energy inflation. As I pointed out months ago, the impact of higher energy prices has a lag, but it eventually flows through to everything downstream.

September rate hike odds increased to 63.4% from 57.1% yesterday.

HY and IG Credit’s relative performance seems supportive enough in the short-term. I’m not sure I’d say they’re a standout, leading edge.

SPX (10M) at its neckline. Investment Grade Credit posted a modest relative positive divergence there (green). Intraday confirmation today (orange) wasn’t great, but not enough to send up warning flares.

SPX (5M) and High Yield Credit with a positive relative divergence at Wednesday’s SPX closing low (green) and a little bit of relative strength leading the SPX toward the gap from last Thursday’s gap down open.

When I refer to the “short-term” trend, I really mean it. Here’s the long-term relative performance trend…

HY Credit’s relative performance since May has been atrocious. May also happens to be when the topping patterns started to form. Investment Grade’s longer-term trend is far worse.

Currencies and Commodities

The U.S. Dollar Index got slammed again today, down -0.8% to $100.02. As covered Wednesday, I don’t think this is about a dovish reaction (though there was initially to the policy statement, before Warsh started speaking). I think this is about a loss of confidence in the Fed causing selling of Dollars.

Warsh initially came out swinging as a hawk to establish his inflation-fighting bonafides, but after this meeting’s press conference, the market is not so sure anymore. That’s evident in the Dollar’s price.

US Dollar Index has retraced the gains from the June FOMC. And yes that is very ugly price action that has probably ruined the bull flag.

It didn’t help that the Bank of Japan intervened in the FX market again today. I’ve been wondering when they would. Their red-line for Yen weakness is USD/JPY $160. We saw them spend some ~$74B on the last intervention to support the yen and run the shorts/speculators out of their positions.

USD/JPY (4H) Notice where USD/JPY ended up on the massive decline? Right under $160. The BoJ confirmed the April 30th intervention after they warned speculators that they’d interviene and burn them. They spent $73-$74 Billion USD on that one. This weighed on the USD as intervention is buying Yen and selling Dollars.

WTI Crude oil closed down -0.85% to $83.96/bbl. – pretty quiet day for crude, but quiet days are part of consolidations. Traders are looking ahead to the OPEC+ meeting on Sunday, during which the group of oil producers is expected to announce a supply increase of 188k barrels per day for September.

“The big uncertainty through 2027 will be around the group’s policy, with the potential for pushback on output quotas,” – ING strategists wrote in a note on Wednesday.

Gold futures settled +1.6% higher at $4,160.60/oz A cooler-than-expected June PCE inflation report helped, and the Dollar’s massive loss was gold’s gain. Still, the bearish Descending Triangle persists.

(60M) – The key short term levels right now are support at $4000 and the triangle’s resistant around $4200. A move above $4200 would invalidate the descending triangle, but to invalidate the bearish consolidation of a rectangle, price would need to trade above $4300. Gold would still be in a primary downtrend unless it trades above roughly $4600. I suspect a break of $4000 will take gold down to $3500 and that’s the path of least resistance.

You might recall that last week URA (+5.85%) had some pretty bullish price action, then it suddenly turned south. I thought that it was headed for a test of the recent low around $37.75. Price has tested that low…

URA (10M) – You can see price slipped out of the bull flag (red) and that was that. The test undercut the prior low, but this can actually be bullish. It shakes out weak hands, shorts jump in and price moves back above, then shorts start to get squeezed and buy to cover, sending price higher.

(30M) Volume is not bad, it’s actually better than I expected to see. It was especially nice on the advance with the bull flags. That may partly explain the 3C chart.

URA (3M) – 3C goes from confirming the decline, to positively diverging at what is looking more and more like a small double bottom.

REMX (+2.9%) is curious. I was looking for a successful test of the $67 area. Didn’t get it.

REMX (5m) – From a price-only perspective, there’s not much to talk about. Price didn’t hold the $67 area. It’s not doing anything constructive, at least not yet, but 3C is still really interesting.

Divergences typically start on the fastest, most sensitive timeframe (but also the weakest), then if there’s a trend of accumulation the divergence migrates out to stronger timeframes. Pros don’t chase rallies (unless they’re CTA’s), they accumulate on the cheap. Like URA above, they’ll buy at low prices. Price starts to rise. They may feed out some shares to knock it back down again, and buy on the cheap again. This is how a double bottom can appear on a price chart. Accumulation. This is where it gets really interesting.

REMX (1M) That’s crazy.

REMX (2M) -migrating to a stronger timeframe, and 3C is not only positively diverging from price, but leading higher. This is one of the strongest types of divergence with this indicator. We saw something like this at oil’s rounding bottom at WTI $67-$70 area.

And one more…REMX (3M) 3C went from confirming the decline to suddenly going vertical and this is a fairly strong time frame. Something’s going on here. If we get some better price action where I can see a clear change in character, a base, whatever, I may just jump all over this. These are crazy signals.

Bitcoin bounced 1.3%, but price is having a very hard time breaking away from the 200 day moving average. Here’s what it looks like tonight.

(daily) – There’s just not a lot to do until price shows us something other than loitering at the 200 day.

Summary

QQQ’s short-term 3C looks ok, I’d say, “good enough” for this bounce to extend. If I had to go by the S&P/SPY alone, I wouldn’t expect much of anything. It’s the Semis’ and mega caps’ 3C charts that look good, or at least good enough to extend the bounce and hit some of those targets (mostly gap fills, or gap fill attempts). I don’t see this as a change in trend, but an oversold counter trend bounce off technical and price support levels.

Bloomberg’s Michael Ball noted, the rebound in tech and momentum stocks looks more like a positioning squeeze than the start of a durable risk-on move, with negative gamma and a less credible Fed likely to keep volatility elevated.

We may be looking at different things, but the gist of his position aligns with my own. Countertrend rallies (rallies within a downtrend) can be some of the strongest you’ll see. They’re oversold. Positioning and sentiment gets extreme, price makes a u-turn, shorts get squeezed to kickstart the move with strong momentum, and traders chase price higher. South Korea’s (KOPSI) semiconductor craze is a great example of retail chasing price higher. It didn’t end well.

I’ve posted several hundred 3C charts over the last month or so showing a consistent theme of smart money using bounces to sell into. That’s what I’m looking for next, probably near some of the target levels identified.

Apple (AAPL) shares tumbled after hours despite beating overall revenue and EPS estimates, as two key areas disappointed. Services revenue (the company’s highest-margin business) came in light at $30.74 billion versus the $31.36 billion expected, while Greater China sales missed at $18.82 billion against a $19.58 billion forecast (Japan also underperformed). Investors, who had been treating Apple as a relatively safe mega-cap amid AI concerns, reacted negatively to the slowdown in these important growth drivers.

Apple (5M) with after hours trade. Look at the little bear flag during Wednesday’s session ahead of earnings.

Amazon (AMZN) shares jumped after hours, driven by stronger-than-expected AWS performance. AWS revenue grew 37% year-over-year to $42.23 billion (well ahead of the $40.57 billion estimate) with expanding margins, while overall revenue and operating income also beat. Investors largely overlooked a disappointing Q3 sales and operating income outlook and free cash flow turning more deeply negative amid heavy AI-related capex and rising debt. It will be interesting to see how Amazon trades in the cash session.

Amazon (5M) with after hours trade.

Overnight

SK Hynix and the KOPSI had a good overnight session, following the U.S. lead, but with more conviction.

Most Index futures are up +0.5%. Nasdaq-100 continues t outperform, up +1.25% tonight.

Yields are flat to down ~2 bps at the long end, providing a neutral to somewhat supportive risk environment.

The U.S. Dollar Index is up +0.25% and looks like a bearish consolidation, just not well formed.

WTI crude oil futures are down -2%. Believe it or not, that still leaves price action consistent with the handle consolidation laid out Tuesday. This also provides a supportive risk environment for equities as it keeps pressure off yields.

Gold futures are down -0.55% at $4137.50. The environment is moderately supportive for gold. I’d expect it to be acting better tonight, but it’s still in the large descending triangle consolidation.

Bitcoin is down around -0.55%.