911,000 Jobs Revised Away, Rate Cut Expectations Shift Modestly Hawkish

12:43 p.m. ET The BLS preliminary benchmark revision for the 12-month period ending March 2025 shows 911,000 fewer jobs than previously published, driven largely by overestimation in the BLS’s “birth-death” model for net new business formations (which assumed stronger job creation from startups than actually occurred, amid sampling errors, declining survey response rates, and adjustments…