Ceasefire on Thin Ice: Israeli Deep Push into Lebanon & Iranian Threats Collide with Axios/Trump Optimism
The post-war ceasefire was unraveling fast, sending oil and yields higher right at key areas where price action has suggested...
Major Setback for the Iran Deal
Just as I was posting the A.M. Update, things began ramping up on the geopolitical front. Over the weekend, a...
Quick 3C Update – NDX
Someone asked me about 3C, I explained that, like most of my analysis, I use it across multiple timeframes and...
White House Situation Room Meeting Ends With No Decision
My suspicions were confirmed. I ended the last post with, “The market awaits President Trump’s decision on a peace deal,...
Waiting On Trump’s Decision – Narrow Leadership, Negative Breadth, Peak Euphoria
Traders are waiting to see whether the U.S. and Iran can deliver the peace deal markets have priced in every...
Afternoon Update
I had to start this post over. I found I was getting a little too deep into Software’s outlook as...
Intrada Update
Early trade has been driven by peace deal / MOU chaos. I’m using SOX as an example not because the...
SOX Into the Close
If there’s one chart worth watching into the close, it’s the Philly Semiconductor (SOX) Index. Internals are ugly with 25...
Market Update
Before the open, Iran’s state media released details of an unofficial draft MOU for an interim peace agreement with the...
Quick Afternoon Update
A quick look around in what’s been a relatively quiet afternoon… Bitcoin (-1.7%) is notably lagging the Nasdaq, but the...
Market Update – Long Duration Bounce on Lower Oil/yields, With Huge UBS Upgrade to Micron’s Price Target
Over the three-day holiday weekend, a steady stream of “imminent deal” headlines drove WTI crude futures down as much as...
Starting Semi Short
The averages have filled the gaps. SOX has filed the gap. That’s what I was looking for in terms of...
Gaps Filled
The oil suppression stories before the cash opens are getting silly at this point. Al Arabiya’s “Final Peace Deal Draft”...
Afternoon Update
What a crazy day of headline ping-pong. Around 1 p.m. Saudi’s AI Arabiya says it TV obtained what it describes...
Market Update
Oil and Yields are both higher this morning, thought choppy, which is in large part attributed to an earlier report...
Oil and Rates Pullback on Flurry of Headlines, Contributing to Market Gains. Averages Haven’t Filled The Gap Yet.
Although the latest geopolitical headlines are highly mixed and contradictory, they are triggering meaningful declines in oil prices and bond...
Market Update
While I suspect Friday’s equity gap down gets filled, likely around Nvidia’s earnings tomorrow, the gist of last night’s lengthy...
President Trump Post Truth Social Stick Save an Hour Before The Close, As 30-Yr Yield Was Breaking Out
Something geopolitical was driving oil higher with WTI jumped above $105 this afternoon… WTI (2M) Higher Oil prices pulled the...
Higher Rates Hitting Long Duration Tech/Semis
Broadly speaking, it’s been a mixed day for the averages, but with yields breaking out last week, long duration Technology...
Afternoon Update
It’s taken some time, but price action, especially in Treasuries, has been unambiguously pointing to “higher yields coming”. The Fed-sensitive...
