Hotter CPI, Rising Yields & Oil Weigh on Tech as Defensive Rotation Provides Support. Is a Major Yield Breakout Next?
Hotter-than-expected inflation data, rising Treasury yields, and higher oil prices weighed on Technology stocks. Rotational dynamics added a layer of...
Afternoon Update
The averages are of session lows. Some more than others and some looking better than others. NDX (10M) Small Caps...
YoY Inflation Well Above Target, Driven Higher by Energy
The weakness in high-yield credit Monday afternoon made me suspect the major averages would have closed lower had the market...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.15%, led lower by Nasdaq-100 (-0.75%). CNN reports that President Trump is seriously considering resuming combat operations...
Volatility & Breadth Signals Intensify: 4th ABI in 5 Days + 6th VXN Signal Since 2009
President Trump sharply criticized Iran’s response to the latest U.S. peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.” He later told reporters...
Afternoon Update
Most averages are up by an anemic +0.15% to +0.25%, and Transports -0.8%. Volatility (+7%) displays relative strength as VIX...
Semis vs. Oil (Deteriorating Geopolitical Backdrop)
The storyline is familiar. Equity investors cling to a seemingly endless spring of hope for a peace settlement in the...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.15% as WTI crude oil futures are up +3% to $98.30/bbl. The latest peace talks failed...
Afternoon Update – Third and Most Powerful ABI Signal in 4 Day.
Beyond Tech/Semis’s strong rally, Volatility’s relative strength is notable, as is the third ABI signal in 4 days and the...
Tech Leads as April Jobs Report Hides Weakness and Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low
I’m not going to get into the full list of “Baffle-em with bullsh*t” sins contained in the Employment Report,...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are up +0.5%. The U.S. and Iran exchanged fire yesterday in the Strait of Hormuz, but President Trump...
Record Highs Fade as Project Freedom Restarts and Strait Clashes Intensify: More 3C Divergences, Another ABI Signal.
The stock market pulled back from this morning’s record-highs as oil prices bounced off their earlier lows after the Wall...
Afternoon Update – Another ABI Signal
There are reports of explosions in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, and Sirik on Iran’s southern coast; Iranian drones flying over Tehran,...
Market Update
Participation is horrible today. Outside of the three mega cap-heavy sectors, everything else is down, and even the mega cap...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are little changed at +0.1% despite fairly large moves in crude oil and yields. NBC reported that the...
Daily Wrap
I spent a lot of time on the set-up, change in tone and policy yesterday, so no need to rehash...
Market and 3C Update
On the topic of Axios’ Barak Ravid and his uncanny habit of dropping market-boosting, positive war-related headlines right before the...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are up +0.65% as oil prices have fallen sharply (–6.3% @ $95.85) and treasury yields dropped sharply (-6bp)...
Project Freedom Lasted One Day. Here’s Why My Spidey Senses Are Buzzing.
Tonight’s post is going to have some speculation on my part, but I’ll pull together some theories driven by market...
Afternoon Update: ABI Signal Incoming
ABI looks like it’s going to post a closing sub-14 signal, currently at 12.35 as we near the close. An...