Happy Taco Tuesday!
Tonight’s post will be a bit shorter and structured a little differently due to developments both during and after the...
Market Update – Uncertain Peace Talks As Ceasefire Deadline Looms
US-Iran peace talks remain highly uncertain as the fragile two-week ceasefire expires tomorrow. The US has expressed confidence that a...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are up similar to last night, +0.2%. WTI Crude oil prices are flat, in the small bull flag...
Bull Trap Setup? Geopolitics Ignored as CTA Inflows Slow
Geopolitical developments over the weekend were met with a subdued start to the week in equities. Iran struck an Indian...
Afternoon Update
Not much has changed since the last update at the index level. Energy gave up its gains. WTI crude settled...
Iran Ceasefire Uncertainty Weighs as Short Covering and CTA Flows Fade
1:43 p.m. ET Directional wartime correlations are tightening up again, whether that be index futures vs. 3-month SOFR (2Y treasury...
A.M. Update
Friday’s Afternoon Update included some commentary that’s not my usual style. After watching the stream of statements coming out of...
Bitcoin’s Bullish 2H vs. Bearish Daily: Protecting Profits at $80,500; Dollar and Crude Update
Bitcoin posted a solid day, but it’s hard to imagine otherwise with risk sentiment dialed up to 11. The swing-trade...
Afternoon Update
Today’s market action felt less about fundamentals and more about headline-driven momentum. Other than President Trump’s own comments, nearly every...
Market Update: Another Day of Headline-Driven Chaos; Separating Signal from Suspect Moves
I really dislike days like this; not the sharp moves in the market, but trying to separate the wheat from...
Another Axios “Pump” on Hormuz Before the Fine Print Drops
It’s hard to ignore that this morning’s set-up to pump the market came by way of Barak Ravid, of Axios, the...
A.M. Update
Busy op-ex morning so far. S&P futures jumped, up +0.95% and crude is down around $10. Iran’s Aragchi says “Strait of...
Equities vs. Reality: Systematic Buying Moderates as Credit, Oil, and Bonds Flash Caution
While keeping in mind that “A day is not a trend”, it is notable that equity momentum slowed markedly today....
3C Update
There’s some more stuff happening on the charts. QQQ (1M) – This is where it started. The chart may look...
Market Update
Mega-caps performance is mixed with notable early weakness is one of the standout features thus far. Oil trades noticeably higher...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are up +0.15% and wTI crude oil futures are up +0.95% ($92.16). Bloomberg reports that Pakistan is pushing for...
Equities Looks Past the War; But Commodities, Bonds, and History Don’t: An Interesting Parallel Emerges
Stocks pushed higher alongside Oil, with VVIX and Nasdaq volatility both rising (while the VIX has behaved better since expiration)....
Afternoon Update
The S&P 500 notches new all-time high as Oil prices remain stable. Lots of chatter that the U.S. and Iran...
Market Update -Might Be Another Index Level 3C Change In Character Developing
The NAHB Housing Market Index contracted to 34 in April (consensus 38) from a prior reading of 38. A senior...
Equities Dive Headfirst Into Speculation While Oil, Yields, and Commodities Stay Cautious
Stocks ripped higher as the Dollar, Oil and Yields decline. That’s a reflection of geopolitical optimism, as if the war...