Hotter CPI, Rising Yields & Oil Weigh on Tech as Defensive Rotation Provides Support. Is a Major Yield Breakout Next?
Hotter-than-expected inflation data, rising Treasury yields, and higher oil prices weighed on Technology stocks. Rotational dynamics added a layer of...
Volatility & Breadth Signals Intensify: 4th ABI in 5 Days + 6th VXN Signal Since 2009
President Trump sharply criticized Iran’s response to the latest U.S. peace proposal, calling it “totally unacceptable.” He later told reporters...
Record Highs Fade as Project Freedom Restarts and Strait Clashes Intensify: More 3C Divergences, Another ABI Signal.
The stock market pulled back from this morning’s record-highs as oil prices bounced off their earlier lows after the Wall...
Daily Wrap
I spent a lot of time on the set-up, change in tone and policy yesterday, so no need to rehash...
Project Freedom Lasted One Day. Here’s Why My Spidey Senses Are Buzzing.
Tonight’s post is going to have some speculation on my part, but I’ll pull together some theories driven by market...
Project Freedom Meets Iranian Escalation: Markets Close Lower on Renewed Hormuz Tensions
In Friday’s Afternoon Update had a gut-feeling, based on observation, that something was about to kick-off in the Middles East....
Artificial Tailwind: BOJ’s Record $100B Intervention Masks Rising Geopolitical and Macro Risks
On a normal day, the dominant story would be the Bank of Japan’s massive, near $100B (confirmed) overnight intervention in...
Inflection Point: Oil Surges Past $109, Yields Spike, Rare 4 Fed Dissents & Institutional Cracks Emerge
Stocks opened to relatively broad weakness as oil prices and rates climbed following a Wall Street Journal report that President Trump...
Daily Wrap – The Calm Before the FOMC and Mega Cap Earnings
Higher oil prices pushed Treasury yields higher again today. April Equity Tailwinds Shift to Headwinds What started as a strong...
Semis’ Win Streak Ends, Credit Diverges, and Tailwinds Weaken Ahead of Fed & Mag7
Stocks finished mixed and barely changed, in sharp contrast to a very busy weekend of news and headlines. Mega-cap and...
Afternoon Update
The day’s a little dull. Risk sentiment got a boost from: 1) Intel’s earnings, lifting SOX for an 18th consecutive...
From Mechanical Flows to More Chaotic Trade As Broadening Consolidations Take Shape
Today they advanced to new highs, but they were unable to retain that posture and closed the session with losses....
Daily Wrap, or Maybe A.M. Update
Sorry this is so late. I saw something on the charts, then spent half the night trying to birth a...
Happy Taco Tuesday!
Tonight’s post will be a bit shorter and structured a little differently due to developments both during and after the...
Bull Trap Setup? Geopolitics Ignored as CTA Inflows Slow
Geopolitical developments over the weekend were met with a subdued start to the week in equities. Iran struck an Indian...
Bitcoin’s Bullish 2H vs. Bearish Daily: Protecting Profits at $80,500; Dollar and Crude Update
Bitcoin posted a solid day, but it’s hard to imagine otherwise with risk sentiment dialed up to 11. The swing-trade...
Equities vs. Reality: Systematic Buying Moderates as Credit, Oil, and Bonds Flash Caution
While keeping in mind that “A day is not a trend”, it is notable that equity momentum slowed markedly today....
Equities Looks Past the War; But Commodities, Bonds, and History Don’t: An Interesting Parallel Emerges
Stocks pushed higher alongside Oil, with VVIX and Nasdaq volatility both rising (while the VIX has behaved better since expiration)....
Equities Dive Headfirst Into Speculation While Oil, Yields, and Commodities Stay Cautious
Stocks ripped higher as the Dollar, Oil and Yields decline. That’s a reflection of geopolitical optimism, as if the war...
Geopolitical Whiplash: Failed Iran Talks Spike Oil Above $105, But Headlines Trigger Swift Monday Reversal
Failed peace talks pushed WTI crude above $105 Sunday night and pressured index futures lower, but the move reversed again...