Oil Slammed, Stocks Soar: Geopolitics, CTAs & a Perfect Semis Measured Move
What a crazy day of trade. There were so many dynamics in play, from earnings to geopolitics, the macro-backdrop, short...
The Oversold bounce Continues on Track
Entering the new week and the new month, stocks ripped higher led by mega caps. The probability of an oversold...
Afternoon Update
In short, I think the bounce that started Thursday, and made some progress today, is likely to continue into the...
3C Nailed the Semis Bounce, But Breadth Says This Is Still Just an Oversold Rally
3C signals were right on the money and in the right places: Semis, Mega Caps, and Tech broadly (Nasdaq over...
Warsh’s “Family Fight,” Bond Market Revolt, and Semis Flashing Oversold Bounce Signals
*Make sure to see the Summary section. I have those updated 3C charts. Earlier weakness was driven by another sharp...
SOX Holds the 100-Day as Kospi Breaks Its Topping Pattern; Iran Escalation Returns
Nasdaq-100 futures were down -0.6% before he market open, though I was surprised they weren’t down mre as the hyper-leveraged...
China Chip Shock Reverses Early Gains as Semis Drag Markets Lower
The US paused almost two weeks of daily strikes against Iran (TACO, or Calm Before the Storm?) and Iran signaled...
AI CapEx Shock & Oil Surge Send Stocks Sharply Lower
I’m going to try to keep this on the short side (and probably will fail). I have a trip tomorrow....
Semis Carry the Market Into Mega Cap Earnings
I was looking more closely at a few charts this afternoon and I thought I’d share them. What I think...
Semis Lead Bounce to Overcomes Headwinds, But Topping Patterns & ABI Warnings Remain
One thing I like about Bitcoin is its occasional strong leading intermarket signal for Tech. Monday got off to a...
Oversold Tech Internals Signal Meets Rising Rates, Oil Pressure & Mag 7 Earnings Week
Friday ended with 1-day oversold internals, with the bulk of the oversold dynamic squarely centered on tech, and more specifically,...
From AI Darlings to Red-Headed Stepchildren: The Great Semiconductor Reversal
Wednesday’s two afternoon posts turned out to be quite insightful and timely. They are also a great real time lesson...
Classic Rotation & Distribution: SOX Completes Right Shoulder as Mega-Caps Catch Up
WHAT A DAY! Classic rotation and distribution played out clearly in Wednesday’s thin summer liquidity. Semis led pre-market gains in Tech...
Tech Reclaims Leadership on KOPSI Rebound as CPI Cools & Trump TACOs on Strait Fees
The genesis of Tuesday’s Tech leadership was apparent in last night’s Wrap, “The KOPSI, down -1.5%, looks like it’s looking...
Strait of Hormuz Drama, Semi Selloff & Rate-Hike Odds Spike = Ugly Monday
Markets took a triple-whammy hit to start the week. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran dominated the day, driving...
Markets Shake Off Geopolitics
Well that de-escalated quickly. Geopolitical developments accelerated after Wednesday’s close. The market ignored them entirely on Thursday. That reaction is...
Geopolitical Clouds Return: Oil Spikes, Yields Rise, But Big Tech Holds the Line
Well, that escalated quickly. Geopolitics took center stage as renewed US-Iran tensions spiked oil prices. However, dip-buyers stepped in to...
Sell the News in Semis, Surging Oil & Rising Yields as Geopolitical Risk Flares Up
Monday’s AI/Semi/Tech rally didn’t look well supported by any means, whether 3C, intraday price action, or inside days on the...
Tech & Semis Bounce Off 50-Day After Sharp Selloff, But Conviction Remains Low
In my view, today wasn’t a meaningful, trend-altering day, it was mostly just technical factors at play. Several times at...
Tuesday’s Thesis Meets Wednesday’s Reality: Meta Signals AI Capex Inflection
Given the gist of Tuesday’s Wrap: “While it’s hard to argue the point when hyperscalers were sinking in June and...