Semis Slip, Crude Jumps as the War Widens
The major averages opened the week lower as semiconductors sold off sharply and crude rose again. The immediate driver was...
Breadth Cracks as the Market Prices a Longer Middle East Conflict
The major averages extended their losing streak to three sessions on Thursday as another surge in crude oil, rising Treasury...
Oil, Yields, and a War That Won’t Stay Contained. And Breadth Stinks!
Escalation is the name of the game in the Middle East, and it’s not just Iran and the U.S., but...
The Hormuz Stabilizing Story Cracks
The major averages finished lower on Tuesday as rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions created a modestly challenging...
Waller Opened the Door For Our Mega Cap Rotation. Now… Payrolls
A pretty consistent takeaway over the last couple of days was summed up in Wednesday’s market update: “The S&P is...
Midweek Bounce After Oil and Yields Stopped Rising. Changes In Character Precede Changes in Trend.
After rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured equities through the first two sessions of the week, the stock market...
$90 Oil, 4.80% Tens, and a Failed August Breakout
Global sovereign yields have been getting more and more attention (not just the U.S. or Japan) in recent days, as...
The Strait Is Back. Fill the NDX Gap, Then Sell Strength.
The market has been working through the thin volume and liquidity of the summer doldrums. The trough is the upcoming...
Forecasted Bounce Starts: Tech Carries Everything, Breadth Collapses
We have the start of the forecasted move, led by the Technology sector, or more specifically, Semiconductors (SOX +2.3%) and...
Holding Pattern Into Nvidia
The week’s big data point, PCE dropped Wednesday before the open, coming in slightly hotter-than-expected: Headline 0.2% MoM & 3.7%...
Chips Stop The Bleeding & Rebound, Gaps Still in Play Ahead of Nvidia & Jackson Hole
Tuesday’s macro backdrop was favorable for equities, with oil prices and yields plunging in tandem, but it was a rather...
Semis & AI Drag Nasdaq Lower as Bessent Scrambles on Yields, Iran, and the Debasement Trade Explodes
The Dow managed a small gain while the S&P slipped modestly and the Nasdaq dropped harder, dragged down by another...
Max-Pain Pin, Failed Breakouts, and the Oil Setup: Next Week’s Playbook
The S&P is trading like an options expiration max-pain price pin (around $7700) is in effect and it would be...
Cup & Handle Breaks, Intervention Fails, Tone Shifts Fast: The Big Picture Is Coming Together
Well, that didn’t take long. I covered quite a lot with regard to the U.S. Treasury’s intervention at the long...
From Bessent’s Bailout to Trump’s Economic D-Day: A Day of Market Synchronicities?
The averages finished mixed, but mostly modestly higher as a reprieve in long-term interest rates and a busy batch of...
The Path Is Becoming Clearer: Oil, Yields, and Pressure on Tech
Monday’s bullish AI (Anthropic) news wasn’t enough to keep Tech from selling off as oil pushed rates higher, and stocks,...
Oil Breaks Out, Yields Rise, and the Failed Breakout Risk Grows
I used to be a pure equities trader. Years ago I began noticing that other asset classes (bonds, commodities, currencies,...
Cool PPI, Low-Volume Breakout, and the Head-Fake Risk Remains.
The Summary section of Wednesday’s market wrap ended with:“My gut feeling is that the averages finish the week with these...
Cool CPI, Quiet Consolidation, and Quiet Cracks in the Mega-Caps ; Head Fake Coming?
Wednesday was yet another dull, below-average volume, consolidation day. The July Consumer Price Index matched consensus expectations, with headline CPI...
Consolidation Continues: Low-Volume Holding Pattern Ahead of CPI as Oil Looks Sharp
The market is roughly a week into consolidating last week’s oversold rally off technical and price support. Tuesday’s dull, low-volume...