Ready, Aim, Aim, Aim… Warsh’s Fed Leaves Markets Unimpressed
Wednesday was a dull day with a dull Fed. Equities did exactly what was expected: a low-volatility, modest FOMC Drift...
Tech Leads as Semis Bounce; Broadcom Backstops Anthropic’s $63B Chip Deal
The stock market finished mostly higher on Tuesday, extending Monday’s rebound as a renewed enthusiasm for AI-related stocks fueled another...
Rotation to Tech
Stocks opened higher Monday after the weekend passed without escalation in the U.S.–Israel conflict with Iran. Oil prices pulled back...
Afternoon Update -Semis and Energy
The two things that have stood out to me today are 1) Semis bouncing into former technical support, now presumed...
Bonds Catch a Massive Safe Haven Bid as AI and Tech Go Risk-Off
First, I want to say that I feel 95% certain that the negative 3C divergences that I saw in QQQ...
Someone Was Already Selling the Days Leaders BEFORE the Gulf News Dropped
The week’s tone has been a rotation between Tech one day, then defensive (and some cyclicals) the next, then back...
AI Buildout vs. Higher for Longer: A Regime Shift in Rates Meets the AI Buildout
The averages didn’t move much from technical and price support levels talked about in yesterday’s market wrap. Participation improved as...
Black Monday Anniversary; Limited Conviction as Buyers Show Up & Back Off
Monday was the 39th anniversary of 1987’s Black Monday Crash… The DJIA (daily 1987) lost -22.6% – the largest 1-day...
Afternoon Update – The Last Leg Is Breaking
The major indices recently hit new lows for the session before getting a needed bounce close to the bottom of...
Yields Are Falling Despite Hot Inflation. The Bond Market Is Watching AI Instead
As Tech goes, the S. Korean KOPSI was looking ugly overnight, down more than -7.5%. And while we have the...
AI Mega-Caps Finally Act Like Long-Duration Stocks as Yields Ease Despite Hot CPI
CPI was expected to be hot, but it was hotter than expected. September headline inflation accelerated to 3.7% year-over-year from...
Energy Bid & AI Questions
Monday night/Tuesday morning Nasdaq-100 futures were weak, alongside a sharp drop in South Korea’s KOSPI. The index is heavily concentrated...
Semis Soft, Oil Firm, Liquidity Thin
It was a quiet start to the week, with the bond market closed for what was a three-day weekend for...
Tech Diverges as OpenAI Revenue Miss Hits AI Complex
Thursday’s session ended with a notable divergence between technology stocks and the broader market, largely due to disappointing revenues from OpenAI....
Failed Breakouts Still in Play. Oil May Be Equities’ Achilles’ Heel.
Wednesday was a Sea of Red. The S&P and Nasdaq new highs on Shooting Star candlesticks wasn’t a great look...
Yields and Oil Consolidate, Beaten-Up Stocks Bounce: Fragile Record Highs
As price and the macro environment developed last week — including rates and oil hitting measured moves and ready to...
A Tale of Two Markets
The stock market had a pretty decent Monday. The averages and sectors got off to a little bit of a...
Q3 Rotation?
Stocks opened with modest gains before selling pressure quickly broadened, sending the major averages to their session lows late in...
Last Day of Q3, Highest Yields Since 2002 -VaR Shock/Bond Volatility Risk Surging
Wednesday’s session was a mostly dull affair in the equity space with half-hearted participation that dwindled throughout the day. The...
Above 5%: The Mega-Cap Thesis
Stocks initially hovered near their flat lines, helped by a decline in crude oil following a report that Middle Eastern...
