WTI Tops $102 as Hormuz Remains Closed and Saudi Outages Worsen, Markets Rally on Israel-Lebanon Talk Optimism
The major averages spent most of the morning in modestly negative territory as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed...
Strongest Risk-On Rally in Months, Even as the Ceasefire Unravels in Real Time
I so don’t want to do the news, so I’ll keep this as short and as relevant as possible. President...
TACO Tuesday: From Deadline Drama to Ceasefire.
This wasn’t a market today. It was just a series of knee-jerk reactions to a messy flood of conflicting headlines....
Iran Holds Firm as Trump’s Tipping Point Deadline Approaches
I was tempted to post Sunday night on the latest developments… but I already knew the script: something would pop...
Afternoon Update – Strange Nonchalant Feel
The major averages are just drifting in muted trade nearing the close, which will be the final trading day of...
Freestyle Update
I said I wasn’t going to post a Daily Wrap so I could focus on the President’s address and watch...
Consolidation Underway? Crude’s Hold Above $100 Undermines the Jawboning Rally
Hopefully you caught Monday’s Measured Moves post. I laid out a lot of expectations from here such as consolidations leading...
Measured Moves
Statements from the Trump administration aimed at influencing market sentiment appeared to show reduced impact last week. The pattern has...
Risk-Off Rotation: Oil and Yields Rise as Mega Caps Break Down Amid Iran Deadline Drama
After 1-day overbought internals Wednesday, Thursday turned increasingly risk off as Oil prices and Yields rose. The Equity/Oil correlation not...
Daily Wrap – Conditions Deteriorating;
Optimism surrounding reports of a U.S. peace proposal to Iran lingered, driving broad-based gains, though. stocks finished off their best...
Tape Bombs, Ceasefire Hopes, Mega Cap Weakness, & Emerging Private Credit Stress
The first half of the day was fairly quiet, then a cornucopia of tape bombs hit, culminating after the close...
Trump TACOs on Iran Ultimatum; 5-Day Pause Announced as Markets Bounce With Little Conviction
Today ranks among the top-3 most chaotic days of the war from a news perspective. President Trump’s Saturday night, 48-hour...
Hawkish Central Banks, Energy Shock, Synchronized Tops, Mega Caps Crack
I’ve got a bunch to unpack and share with you. It doesn’t all snap together into one neat, cohesive big...
Sell-Off: Energy War Escalates, Inflation Hotter, Fed Hawkish Repricing
Tuesday’s dull, low conviction tone flipped on a dime today. Israel struck upstream Iranian energy assets ( Iran’s South Pars...
Low-Conviction Bounce Ahead of Fed
Yesterday was full-on, as contradicting headlines came in fast and furious. Today was more like watching paint dry, literally combining...
Short Nasdaq, Long Vol/Crude, and Waiting for the Next Twist in the Lion-Pangolin Standoff
I’ve never had s much background work to do. Developments happen so fast, I have to check, recheck, write, rewrite...
Crude Oil Continues Driving Equities; Mega Cap’s Safe Haven Status May Have Cracked
I’ve seen the synchronistic prescience of price action almost every week for a couple of decades, but it still fascinates...
Oil Up, Yields Up, Dollar Up; Stocks Flat-to-Down: The War’s Inflationary Grip Tightens Despite IEA Move, As Software Credit Divergences and Bond Volatility Flash Red
The IEA came through with a decision to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to...
Oil’s Grip on Equities
Disruptions to shipping through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints continues to leave markets extremely sensitive to developments...
Oil’s Wild Weekend Ride Meets Monday’s Jawbone Reversal
Another spicy start to the week. There’s a pattern emerging: gloves off and hit hard over the weekend, deescalate during...