The Rumor Mill Saved Oil. It Did Not Save the 10-Year Treasury – 5.25%
Monday was the rumor mill on full volume. The major averages finished the day broadly lower after a volatile session...
Oracle… The First Domino?
The averages started Thursday with a sharp morning decline as WTI crude oil surged above $96 and Brent crude above...
Above 5.00% is the Test: 5%: PMIs, a blown 5-year auction, and the 10-year through 5.11%. Mega caps are what’s left holding the table.
The major averages finished broadly lower on Wednesday as a breakout and sharp increase in Treasury yields, accompanied by a...
5% Is the Test
Most of the day the question was whether stocks would follow through on Monday’s gains. Semiconductors took the lead as...
Gamma at the Open, Hollow Under the Hood.
The macro backdrop of lower oil (consolidating) and lower yields (consolidating) was helpful for stocks. Index futures drifted higher as...
Knee-Jerk Retraced. Higher for Longer Was Not
For 2 decades I’ve warned before every FOMC, “Beware the initial knee-jerk reaction, they’re almost always retraced.” The initial knee-jerk...
Higher For Longer
A Hawkish Hike. The Fed’s decision to hike rates 25 basis points, to a 3.75%–4% range, was unanimous. The SEP’s...
FOMC: diesel at $6.28, mortgages at 7.22%, Nasdaq unchanged after four months of chop
The major averages finished lower for the second consecutive session on Tuesday as another surge in crude oil lifted Treasury...
Semis Slip, Crude Jumps as the War Widens
The major averages opened the week lower as semiconductors sold off sharply and crude rose again. The immediate driver was...
Breadth Cracks as the Market Prices a Longer Middle East Conflict
The major averages extended their losing streak to three sessions on Thursday as another surge in crude oil, rising Treasury...
Oil, Yields, and a War That Won’t Stay Contained. And Breadth Stinks!
Escalation is the name of the game in the Middle East, and it’s not just Iran and the U.S., but...
The Hormuz Stabilizing Story Cracks
The major averages finished lower on Tuesday as rising oil prices and escalating geopolitical tensions created a modestly challenging...
Waller Opened the Door For Our Mega Cap Rotation. Now… Payrolls
A pretty consistent takeaway over the last couple of days was summed up in Wednesday’s market update: “The S&P is...
Midweek Bounce After Oil and Yields Stopped Rising. Changes In Character Precede Changes in Trend.
After rising oil prices and Treasury yields pressured equities through the first two sessions of the week, the stock market...
$90 Oil, 4.80% Tens, and a Failed August Breakout
Global sovereign yields have been getting more and more attention (not just the U.S. or Japan) in recent days, as...
The Strait Is Back. Fill the NDX Gap, Then Sell Strength.
The market has been working through the thin volume and liquidity of the summer doldrums. The trough is the upcoming...
Forecasted Bounce Starts: Tech Carries Everything, Breadth Collapses
We have the start of the forecasted move, led by the Technology sector, or more specifically, Semiconductors (SOX +2.3%) and...
Holding Pattern Into Nvidia
The week’s big data point, PCE dropped Wednesday before the open, coming in slightly hotter-than-expected: Headline 0.2% MoM & 3.7%...
Chips Stop The Bleeding & Rebound, Gaps Still in Play Ahead of Nvidia & Jackson Hole
Tuesday’s macro backdrop was favorable for equities, with oil prices and yields plunging in tandem, but it was a rather...
Semis & AI Drag Nasdaq Lower as Bessent Scrambles on Yields, Iran, and the Debasement Trade Explodes
The Dow managed a small gain while the S&P slipped modestly and the Nasdaq dropped harder, dragged down by another...