Afternoon Update
The day’s a little dull. Risk sentiment got a boost from: 1) Intel’s earnings, lifting SOX for an 18th consecutive...
From Mechanical Flows to More Chaotic Trade As Broadening Consolidations Take Shape
Today they advanced to new highs, but they were unable to retain that posture and closed the session with losses....
Daily Wrap, or Maybe A.M. Update
Sorry this is so late. I saw something on the charts, then spent half the night trying to birth a...
Happy Taco Tuesday!
Tonight’s post will be a bit shorter and structured a little differently due to developments both during and after the...
Bull Trap Setup? Geopolitics Ignored as CTA Inflows Slow
Geopolitical developments over the weekend were met with a subdued start to the week in equities. Iran struck an Indian...
Bitcoin’s Bullish 2H vs. Bearish Daily: Protecting Profits at $80,500; Dollar and Crude Update
Bitcoin posted a solid day, but it’s hard to imagine otherwise with risk sentiment dialed up to 11. The swing-trade...
Equities vs. Reality: Systematic Buying Moderates as Credit, Oil, and Bonds Flash Caution
While keeping in mind that “A day is not a trend”, it is notable that equity momentum slowed markedly today....
Equities Looks Past the War; But Commodities, Bonds, and History Don’t: An Interesting Parallel Emerges
Stocks pushed higher alongside Oil, with VVIX and Nasdaq volatility both rising (while the VIX has behaved better since expiration)....
Equities Dive Headfirst Into Speculation While Oil, Yields, and Commodities Stay Cautious
Stocks ripped higher as the Dollar, Oil and Yields decline. That’s a reflection of geopolitical optimism, as if the war...
Geopolitical Whiplash: Failed Iran Talks Spike Oil Above $105, But Headlines Trigger Swift Monday Reversal
Failed peace talks pushed WTI crude above $105 Sunday night and pressured index futures lower, but the move reversed again...
WTI Tops $102 as Hormuz Remains Closed and Saudi Outages Worsen, Markets Rally on Israel-Lebanon Talk Optimism
The major averages spent most of the morning in modestly negative territory as the Strait of Hormuz remained largely closed...
Strongest Risk-On Rally in Months, Even as the Ceasefire Unravels in Real Time
I so don’t want to do the news, so I’ll keep this as short and as relevant as possible. President...
TACO Tuesday: From Deadline Drama to Ceasefire.
This wasn’t a market today. It was just a series of knee-jerk reactions to a messy flood of conflicting headlines....
Iran Holds Firm as Trump’s Tipping Point Deadline Approaches
I was tempted to post Sunday night on the latest developments… but I already knew the script: something would pop...
Afternoon Update – Strange Nonchalant Feel
The major averages are just drifting in muted trade nearing the close, which will be the final trading day of...
Freestyle Update
I said I wasn’t going to post a Daily Wrap so I could focus on the President’s address and watch...
Consolidation Underway? Crude’s Hold Above $100 Undermines the Jawboning Rally
Hopefully you caught Monday’s Measured Moves post. I laid out a lot of expectations from here such as consolidations leading...
Measured Moves
Statements from the Trump administration aimed at influencing market sentiment appeared to show reduced impact last week. The pattern has...
Risk-Off Rotation: Oil and Yields Rise as Mega Caps Break Down Amid Iran Deadline Drama
After 1-day overbought internals Wednesday, Thursday turned increasingly risk off as Oil prices and Yields rose. The Equity/Oil correlation not...
Daily Wrap – Conditions Deteriorating;
Optimism surrounding reports of a U.S. peace proposal to Iran lingered, driving broad-based gains, though. stocks finished off their best...