Tape Bombs, Ceasefire Hopes, Mega Cap Weakness, & Emerging Private Credit Stress
The first half of the day was fairly quiet, then a cornucopia of tape bombs hit, culminating after the close...
Trump TACOs on Iran Ultimatum; 5-Day Pause Announced as Markets Bounce With Little Conviction
Today ranks among the top-3 most chaotic days of the war from a news perspective. President Trump’s Saturday night, 48-hour...
Hawkish Central Banks, Energy Shock, Synchronized Tops, Mega Caps Crack
I’ve got a bunch to unpack and share with you. It doesn’t all snap together into one neat, cohesive big...
Sell-Off: Energy War Escalates, Inflation Hotter, Fed Hawkish Repricing
Tuesday’s dull, low conviction tone flipped on a dime today. Israel struck upstream Iranian energy assets ( Iran’s South Pars...
Low-Conviction Bounce Ahead of Fed
Yesterday was full-on, as contradicting headlines came in fast and furious. Today was more like watching paint dry, literally combining...
Short Nasdaq, Long Vol/Crude, and Waiting for the Next Twist in the Lion-Pangolin Standoff
I’ve never had s much background work to do. Developments happen so fast, I have to check, recheck, write, rewrite...
Crude Oil Continues Driving Equities; Mega Cap’s Safe Haven Status May Have Cracked
I’ve seen the synchronistic prescience of price action almost every week for a couple of decades, but it still fascinates...
Oil Up, Yields Up, Dollar Up; Stocks Flat-to-Down: The War’s Inflationary Grip Tightens Despite IEA Move, As Software Credit Divergences and Bond Volatility Flash Red
The IEA came through with a decision to make 400 million barrels of oil from their emergency reserves available to...
Oil’s Grip on Equities
Disruptions to shipping through one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints continues to leave markets extremely sensitive to developments...
Oil’s Wild Weekend Ride Meets Monday’s Jawbone Reversal
Another spicy start to the week. There’s a pattern emerging: gloves off and hit hard over the weekend, deescalate during...
WTI Rockets 10% on Hormuz Chaos – Stocks Lower, Tech Shows Relative Strength
Stocks closed mostly lower, weighed down by a sharp surge in oil prices that pressured the broader market. After yesterday’s...
Mega Caps & Bitcoin Lead Rebound
In many ways today’s equity market action was the mirror opposite of yesterday, whether the direction, the major averages’ performance,...
Equity Investors Get the Memo: Interesting Change in Character and Another ABI Signal
Monday equity investors brushed off the weekend war with Iran: Stocks Shrug; Why This “Tempest in a Teapot” Could Turn...
Stocks Shrug; Why This “Tempest in a Teapot” Could Turn Ugly for Credit & Stocks
March kicked off on an eventful note. In truth, 2026 feels increasingly chaotic. I know that’s somewhat subjective. I’m aware...
AI Winners Dumped, AI Losers Bid, Credit Warns & H&S Tops Signal Trouble Ahead
The market went “The other way” and sold the news. Nvidia blew away earnings, yet traded -5.45% lower. Software stocks...
Narrow Leadership Rally: Mega-Caps Backtest H&S Necklines as Rare ABI Signals Cluster
Technology leadership led to a solid session for the indices ahead key earnings after the bell, though the breadth of...
Technical Oversold Bounce: Software Rebounds, Anthropic Pitch Falls Flat, Big Picture Unchanged
Monday’s internals didn’t reach the 1-day oversold threshold, but the psychology of the market (manic, sell-first and ask questions later)...
AI Wrecking Ball + Tariff Turmoil: Broad Selling, Defensive Rotation, Nvidia on Deck
Uncertainty and selling was a broad-based theme coming into the new week (Tariffs, Geopolitics-both Iran and now Mexico and AI...
Short & Sweet Tonight: Mom’s Homecoming, Dull Markets, and Mounting Mega-Cap Warning Signs
Tonight’s post is going to be abbreviated and in an informal format. I didn’t expect my Mom’s remains were coming...
Staying On the Ball Part 2: Mega-Cap Distribution Defines the Bigger AI-Era Shift
Stocks had a solid session today, though they finished off their session highs this afternoon. The gist of the FOMC...