Max-Pain Pin, Failed Breakouts, and the Oil Setup: Next Week’s Playbook
The S&P is trading like an options expiration max-pain price pin (around $7700) is in effect and it would be...
Cup & Handle Breaks, Intervention Fails, Tone Shifts Fast: The Big Picture Is Coming Together
Well, that didn’t take long. I covered quite a lot with regard to the U.S. Treasury’s intervention at the long...
From Bessent’s Bailout to Trump’s Economic D-Day: A Day of Market Synchronicities?
The averages finished mixed, but mostly modestly higher as a reprieve in long-term interest rates and a busy batch of...
The Path Is Becoming Clearer: Oil, Yields, and Pressure on Tech
Monday’s bullish AI (Anthropic) news wasn’t enough to keep Tech from selling off as oil pushed rates higher, and stocks,...
Oil Breaks Out, Yields Rise, and the Failed Breakout Risk Grows
I used to be a pure equities trader. Years ago I began noticing that other asset classes (bonds, commodities, currencies,...
Cool PPI, Low-Volume Breakout, and the Head-Fake Risk Remains.
The Summary section of Wednesday’s market wrap ended with:“My gut feeling is that the averages finish the week with these...
Cool CPI, Quiet Consolidation, and Quiet Cracks in the Mega-Caps ; Head Fake Coming?
Wednesday was yet another dull, below-average volume, consolidation day. The July Consumer Price Index matched consensus expectations, with headline CPI...
Consolidation Continues: Low-Volume Holding Pattern Ahead of CPI as Oil Looks Sharp
The market is roughly a week into consolidating last week’s oversold rally off technical and price support. Tuesday’s dull, low-volume...
Oil Spikes, Yields Rise, and AI Debt Keeps Growing — Consolidation Continues with Growing Caution
The new week continued the price action from Friday, consistent with the outlook in Friday’s Afternoon Update: “Monday should pick-up...
Averages Consolidate, While Hormuz Concerns Lift Oil & Yields
After a relatively weak open, technology initially stabilized the market. Sandisk (SNDK -6.8%) and Western Digital (WDC -13%) opened sharply...
Quiet Markets, Complex Hormuz Headlines & a Gold Surge
Overall, a pretty quiet day for the averages. A modestly lower U.S. Dollar and Treasury yields provided a neutral to...
Oil Slammed, Stocks Soar: Geopolitics, CTAs & a Perfect Semis Measured Move
What a crazy day of trade. There were so many dynamics in play, from earnings to geopolitics, the macro-backdrop, short...
The Oversold bounce Continues on Track
Entering the new week and the new month, stocks ripped higher led by mega caps. The probability of an oversold...
Afternoon Update
In short, I think the bounce that started Thursday, and made some progress today, is likely to continue into the...
3C Nailed the Semis Bounce, But Breadth Says This Is Still Just an Oversold Rally
3C signals were right on the money and in the right places: Semis, Mega Caps, and Tech broadly (Nasdaq over...
Warsh’s “Family Fight,” Bond Market Revolt, and Semis Flashing Oversold Bounce Signals
*Make sure to see the Summary section. I have those updated 3C charts. Earlier weakness was driven by another sharp...
SOX Holds the 100-Day as Kospi Breaks Its Topping Pattern; Iran Escalation Returns
Nasdaq-100 futures were down -0.6% before he market open, though I was surprised they weren’t down mre as the hyper-leveraged...
China Chip Shock Reverses Early Gains as Semis Drag Markets Lower
The US paused almost two weeks of daily strikes against Iran (TACO, or Calm Before the Storm?) and Iran signaled...
AI CapEx Shock & Oil Surge Send Stocks Sharply Lower
I’m going to try to keep this on the short side (and probably will fail). I have a trip tomorrow....
Semis Carry the Market Into Mega Cap Earnings
I was looking more closely at a few charts this afternoon and I thought I’d share them. What I think...