Hormuz Headline Bails Out Stocks; Though I Think It’s A Misread (intentional or otherwise)
*Apologies for the late post, but there was a lot I had to look into, amid a very fluid shift...
Afternoon Update
Today has been one of the craziest days in a long time, between parsing contradictory statements, leaks of President Trump’s...
Change In Character – Possible ABI Signal
The last update (the hit on an Amazon data center in Bahrain) coincided with a change in character in the...
Intraday Update -Amazon Cloud Infra. Attacked in Bahrain
I saw the averages, led by Tech and Consumer Discretionary coming down off the highs of the day in a...
The Fog of War: Ceasefire Optimism Holds, Despite Contradictions
Iran has again rejected Trump’s narrative, after he hours ago claimed that “Iran’s New Regime President” has just “asked the United...
Afternoon Update – Starting MOO (Long)
The wire ping that sent stocks soaring and oil falling was only a snippet of a larger conversation between the...
Market Update – Potential Start of Consolidation
While I’ve been putting together this post, headlines have moved prices. I’ll update price percent changes, but will leave charts...
Afternoon Update
Mega Caps are lower, but not the leading the downside as we’ve seen recently. They may be ready to enter...
Market Update: Mega Caps Act Better, Semis Worse; Inflation Fears Turn Toward Recession Fears
President Trump’s commentary on “great progress” in negotiations with Iran gave the market some optimism before the open, though the...
Afternoon Update
Not much has changed. I thought we might get some short covering that lifts the averages off session lows. I...
Intraday Update
Just checking in and letting you know, yes, underlying trade (3C) is as ugly a price action suggests. Volatility is...
Market Update – Crude Up, Mega Caps & software Down, BTC In Dangerous Area
The war in Iran remains devoid of a clear de escalation path, and crude oil is currently up +4.35% at...
Afternoon Update – Not Looking Good, But Moving As Expected
It’s stressful to collect charts like the NDX below this near to the close. A lot can happen in the...
VXX’s Short-Term 3C Change in Character
With a ground invasion of Iran looking more and more likely; WTI up +4.5% to $94.35/bbl (above $92 local resistance),...
Mega Caps Lead Lower As Crude And Rates Move Higher
After posting 1-day overbought internals, the major averages are lower across the board, featuring weak performance from Mega Caps and...
Afternoon Update – Second Order Effect Fertilizer Plays
I’m looking seriously at adding some second/third order effect plays from the war to potentially benefit from reduced fertilizer exports...
Intraday Update: Knee Jerk on News
The latest to modestly move markets… IRAN FM ABBAS ARAQCHI SAYS ENEMY FAILED TO DIVIDE COUNTRY OR SECURE QUICK VICTORY...
Market Update: Iran Claps Back with Trump-Style, Maximalist Demands. Seems Boots in the Sand is an Increasingly Likely Escalation
I’ll keep this brief given how fluid the situation remains, but I want to establish a clear baseline so we...
Afternoon Update
President Trump kept talking about a big gift that the Iranians gave “us”, but says that he won’t say what...
WTI Knife Fight at $92; New Barrage of Trump “Negotiating Talks”
I’m watching this former support level closely as WTI tried to regain $92 (former support) after testing it at least...