The Yen Carry Trade Hypothesis: Testing the Engine Behind 2026’s Procyclical Surge and Defensive Squeeze
Today’s market action extended yesterday’s rotating roller coaster, with ongoing geopolitical developments and fundamentals driving the volatility, that volatility itself...
Calm VIX Hides Rising Tail Risk: SKEW Rises, VVIX Jumps, Markets Digest Geopolitics & Banks
A busy morning of economic data and earnings reports failed to provide a strong enough catalyst for equities. Escalating protests...
Daily Wrap: Powell’s DOJ Drama Drives Safe-Haven Surge in Precious Metals as Stocks Claw Back Losses
This week was already going to be full, with: inflation data, Fed speakers (before Saturday’s Fed media blackout), and banks...
Daily Wrap – A Mixed Market With More Rotation, Cracks in Tech and Strength in Crude
Yet another day of crazy rotation with cyclicals leading and tech notably retreating -a complete flip of pre-market indications. For...
Daily Wrap
As has been the norm recently, early futures indications meant nothing once the cash market opened. the Dow and Small...
U.S. Reflation Hopes: Authentic or Just Asia’s Echo?
The stock market added to the strong start to the first full trading week of the new year today, with...
Daily Wrap
The first full trading week of 2026 kicked off with a something of a head fake this morning: chip stocks...
Daily Wrap – Window Dressing Fades; Important Clues Emerge Amid Dull Trade
Monday’s Daily Wrap concluded with the observation, “I anticipate a couple of lackluster days for market price action, but as...
Daily Wrap – New ABI Signals
Recently I’ve had a more and more difficult time explaining gold’s strength; acting more like a risk asset than a...
Subtle Whispers from Volatility and ABI: Quiet Clues of a Bearish Shift Beneath the Calm
Today’s abbreviated session was a snoozer. The averages finished modestly higher, between +0.2% and +0.6% as volatility (VIX -3.7%) was...
Daily Wrap – Window Dressing
The market was a little over the place early on, then the slow low volatility grind higher. Index futures were...
Daily Wrap – Metals Soar
Seasonal holiday volume has kicked in with today coming in roughly ~25% below the 20-day average volume. Low liquidity tends...
Daily Wrap -Too Cool to Be True?
After 4 days down, the market was due for a bounce, or what I suspect may turn into a bearish...
Daily Wrap – The Entire AI Complex Is Under Pressure
A few months ago AI hype was hotter than a South Florida BBQ in August. Every week we had some...
Daily Wrap – On Track
The market finally got the delayed November Employment Situation report, which beat expectations on payroll gains. However, it came alongside...
Daily Wrap – Pretty Well Formed H&S Tops
Index futures were up more than a half-percent in Monday’s pre-market session. Once again, Bitcoin led a decline into the...
Daily Wrap – Divergent
Thursday could be described as a tale of two markets. On one side procyclical sectors and defensive sectors rallied the...
Daily Wrap – Less Hawkish Than Expected
A few points from today’s Fed/FOMC: Reduced the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% to 3.75%, as...
Daily Wrap – FOMC On Deck
The averages were very little changed today ahead of the FOMC. While not as widely anticipated in the shadow of...
Daily Wrap – Déjà Vu All Over Again: Yields Reprise the October Sell-Off Script
Equities ended modestly lower, with only the Tech sector (+0.7%) in the green—nowhere near enough to offset broad-based selling elsewhere....
