Afternoon Update: Tech on the Precipice
3C led mega caps lower. Mega Caps’ relative weakness is pronounced on follow-through to the downside after a decisive break...
Market Update – Mega Caps Follow-Through to Downside
There was a flurry of fairly broad buying activity shortly after the open with as many as eight S&P 500...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.25% as the stock market is on track for its 4th weekly loss. $5.7 trillion notional...
Hawkish Central Banks, Energy Shock, Synchronized Tops, Mega Caps Crack
I’ve got a bunch to unpack and share with you. It doesn’t all snap together into one neat, cohesive big...
Intraday Update
The market is moving on what appears to be a reaction to Israel’s Prime Minister, Netanyahu, press conference comments. “Iran...
Mega-Cap Breaks Accelerate: NVDA, META, AMZN Bear Flags Snap as Iran Hits Qatar LNG & Gulf Refineries
It’s another fast moving session with headlines shifting quickly. The basis of the geopolitical backdrop: Iran retaliated for the attack...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.8%, having legged down from last night’s bearish consolidation. (2M) Iran followed through on its promise...
Sell-Off: Energy War Escalates, Inflation Hotter, Fed Hawkish Repricing
Tuesday’s dull, low conviction tone flipped on a dime today. Israel struck upstream Iranian energy assets ( Iran’s South Pars...
Afternoon Update
Though VIX/Volatility is higher, there’s a little bit of relative weakness in VIX. It has been there all day....
Powell Update: Hawkish Leaning
Powell noted that higher inflation is now expected in 2026, but that is not solely due to the recent surge...
fOMC Policy Statement/SEP
Fed Funds Rate Unchanged in 11:1 vote. Miran dissents again in favor of a rate cut. Fed Projects (1) 25...
Escalation Ahead of the FOMC
Tuesday’s brief geopolitical calm evaporated quickly. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran was set to become the largest oil supply disruption...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down 0.5% as WTI Crude oil futures are up +1.5% to $97 after the U.S./Israeli coalition struck...
Low-Conviction Bounce Ahead of Fed
Yesterday was full-on, as contradicting headlines came in fast and furious. Today was more like watching paint dry, literally combining...
Afernoon Update
3C is a touch stronger across volatility assets, with a pick up into the close. None really jump off the...
Market Update – Dull Pre-FOMC Trade
Participation is broad, though stocks faded from early gains. As we saw yesterday, stocks’ correlation with crude oil is starting...
A.M. Update
S&P Futures are up 0.25% as WTI crude oil are up 1.6% ($94.96), but off overnight highs. Bloomberg reports that Iran...
Short Nasdaq, Long Vol/Crude, and Waiting for the Next Twist in the Lion-Pangolin Standoff
I’ve never had s much background work to do. Developments happen so fast, I have to check, recheck, write, rewrite...
Afternoon Update
Gold is holding around $5k. Gold Miners are showing a hint of relative strength, which we haven’t seen recently. It’s...
Relief Rally: Low Conviction
The familiar weekend pattern (U.S./Israel attack Kharg Island ~90% of Iranian exports) after the market close Friday, then jawbone crude...