Consolidation Underway? Crude’s Hold Above $100 Undermines the Jawboning Rally
Hopefully you caught Monday’s Measured Moves post. I laid out a lot of expectations from here such as consolidations leading...
Afternoon Update – Starting MOO (Long)
The wire ping that sent stocks soaring and oil falling was only a snippet of a larger conversation between the...
Market Update – Potential Start of Consolidation
While I’ve been putting together this post, headlines have moved prices. I’ll update price percent changes, but will leave charts...
Measured Moves
Statements from the Trump administration aimed at influencing market sentiment appeared to show reduced impact last week. The pattern has...
Afternoon Update
Mega Caps are lower, but not the leading the downside as we’ve seen recently. They may be ready to enter...
Market Update: Mega Caps Act Better, Semis Worse; Inflation Fears Turn Toward Recession Fears
President Trump’s commentary on “great progress” in negotiations with Iran gave the market some optimism before the open, though the...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are up +0.85% to start this holiday shortened week. Bloomberg reported yesterday that President Trump said Iran “gave”...
Afternoon Update
Not much has changed. I thought we might get some short covering that lifts the averages off session lows. I...
Intraday Update
Just checking in and letting you know, yes, underlying trade (3C) is as ugly a price action suggests. Volatility is...
Market Update – Crude Up, Mega Caps & software Down, BTC In Dangerous Area
The war in Iran remains devoid of a clear de escalation path, and crude oil is currently up +4.35% at...
A.M. Update
Nothing on the geopolitical front has calmed down since President Trump’s announcement of a 10-day pause, starting with the 10-day...
Risk-Off Rotation: Oil and Yields Rise as Mega Caps Break Down Amid Iran Deadline Drama
After 1-day overbought internals Wednesday, Thursday turned increasingly risk off as Oil prices and Yields rose. The Equity/Oil correlation not...
Afternoon Update – Not Looking Good, But Moving As Expected
It’s stressful to collect charts like the NDX below this near to the close. A lot can happen in the...
VXX’s Short-Term 3C Change in Character
With a ground invasion of Iran looking more and more likely; WTI up +4.5% to $94.35/bbl (above $92 local resistance),...
Mega Caps Lead Lower As Crude And Rates Move Higher
After posting 1-day overbought internals, the major averages are lower across the board, featuring weak performance from Mega Caps and...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.8% as oil prices climb and yields rise. Iran continues to attack energy infrastructure sites in...
Daily Wrap – Conditions Deteriorating;
Optimism surrounding reports of a U.S. peace proposal to Iran lingered, driving broad-based gains, though. stocks finished off their best...
Afternoon Update – Second Order Effect Fertilizer Plays
I’m looking seriously at adding some second/third order effect plays from the war to potentially benefit from reduced fertilizer exports...
Intraday Update: Knee Jerk on News
The latest to modestly move markets… IRAN FM ABBAS ARAQCHI SAYS ENEMY FAILED TO DIVIDE COUNTRY OR SECURE QUICK VICTORY...
Market Update: Iran Claps Back with Trump-Style, Maximalist Demands. Seems Boots in the Sand is an Increasingly Likely Escalation
I’ll keep this brief given how fluid the situation remains, but I want to establish a clear baseline so we...