Semis vs. Oil (Deteriorating Geopolitical Backdrop)
The storyline is familiar. Equity investors cling to a seemingly endless spring of hope for a peace settlement in the...
Afternoon Update – Third and Most Powerful ABI Signal in 4 Day.
Beyond Tech/Semis’s strong rally, Volatility’s relative strength is notable, as is the third ABI signal in 4 days and the...
Tech Leads as April Jobs Report Hides Weakness and Consumer Sentiment Hits Record Low
I’m not going to get into the full list of “Baffle-em with bullsh*t” sins contained in the Employment Report,...
Afternoon Update – Another ABI Signal
There are reports of explosions in Bandar Abbas, Qeshm, and Sirik on Iran’s southern coast; Iranian drones flying over Tehran,...
Market Update
Participation is horrible today. Outside of the three mega cap-heavy sectors, everything else is down, and even the mega cap...
Market and 3C Update
On the topic of Axios’ Barak Ravid and his uncanny habit of dropping market-boosting, positive war-related headlines right before the...
Afternoon Update: ABI Signal Incoming
ABI looks like it’s going to post a closing sub-14 signal, currently at 12.35 as we near the close. An...
Market Update: Ceasefire Holds ‘Below the Threshold’ as U.S. Downplays Attacks Amid Iranian Internal Chaos
U.S. Official Statements on the Ceasefire: Trump administration officials reiterated that the U.S.-Iran ceasefire is still holding. When asked at...
Market Update: Strait of Hormuz Rising Tensions Fuel Market Volatility
The market had been trading with decent participation this morning, but low conviction and small price-percent changes among the averages...
Afternoon Update
The major averages are mixed into the close. Price action in mega cap-heavy, cap-weighted S&P and Nasdaq-100 looks good. SPX...
Mega Caps Are Back
There’s some crazy things happening this morning. WTI Crude plunged from $104 to $100 is 75 minutes. Yields of course,...
Afternoon Update
The S&P 500 (+1.0%), Nasdaq (+1%), and DJIA (+1.6%) continued to climb to new session highs this afternoon. Behind the...
Market Update
Big day of developments. There were plenty of fascinating, and at times downright strange, developments overnight and this morning. Overnight...
Afternoon Update
Powell announced that he will continue to serve as a governor for a period of time after his term as...
Quick FOMC Update
FOMC held rates unchanged, but with a rare 4 dissents (1 dovish, 3 hawkish). The lone dovish dissenter (Miran) has...
Crude Smashes $100 Resistance to $107
Oil prices are moving higher, and Treasury yields along with them as as U.S. prepares for extended blockade of Iran....
Afternoon Update
WTI crude up +3.6%, but fighting against the invisible hand right at $100. There is a tight bullish symmetrical triangle...
Market Update: Bad Timing for Big Tech: OpenAI Miss, Semis Stumble, and Oil @ $100
The WSJ OpenAI feature couldn’t have come at a worse time for mega cap hyperscalers reporting earnings this week, and...
Semiconductors Win Streak At Risk As HyperScalers Report, Tech Momentum Cools, & DeepSeek’s Disruption Theme Remerges
On the geopolitical front, Iran has reportedly sent a new proposal to the U.S. that would reopen the Strait of...
Market Update – Important Developments
*As I was finishing up this post, some developments broke with respect to the conflict with Iran. It would take...
