Daily Wrap – Conditions Deteriorating;
Optimism surrounding reports of a U.S. peace proposal to Iran lingered, driving broad-based gains, though. stocks finished off their best...
Afternoon Update – Second Order Effect Fertilizer Plays
I’m looking seriously at adding some second/third order effect plays from the war to potentially benefit from reduced fertilizer exports...
Intraday Update: Knee Jerk on News
The latest to modestly move markets… IRAN FM ABBAS ARAQCHI SAYS ENEMY FAILED TO DIVIDE COUNTRY OR SECURE QUICK VICTORY...
Market Update: Iran Claps Back with Trump-Style, Maximalist Demands. Seems Boots in the Sand is an Increasingly Likely Escalation
I’ll keep this brief given how fluid the situation remains, but I want to establish a clear baseline so we...
A.M. Update
We’re pretty much in the same place as last night: S&P futures +0.8%, WTI crude -5% to $87.60, except Iran...
Tape Bombs, Ceasefire Hopes, Mega Cap Weakness, & Emerging Private Credit Stress
The first half of the day was fairly quiet, then a cornucopia of tape bombs hit, culminating after the close...
Afternoon Update
President Trump kept talking about a big gift that the Iranians gave “us”, but says that he won’t say what...
WTI Knife Fight at $92; New Barrage of Trump “Negotiating Talks”
I’m watching this former support level closely as WTI tried to regain $92 (former support) after testing it at least...
Mega Caps Lag; Private Credit Funds Gating Investors
Iran launched multiple waves of missiles (at least eight overnight) targeting Israel, including Tel Aviv, Eilat, and the Dimona area....
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.5%. The ceasefire talks, talk, hasn’t gained any new or substantive traction. The Wall Street Journal reports...
Trump TACOs on Iran Ultimatum; 5-Day Pause Announced as Markets Bounce With Little Conviction
Today ranks among the top-3 most chaotic days of the war from a news perspective. President Trump’s Saturday night, 48-hour...
Afternoon Update
There’s a lot of craziness and confusion on the geopolitical front. On the technical front, today is proceeding like a...
Headline Ping Pong Sows Chaos; The Price Trend Is As Expected.
I’ll try to keep developments as current as possible, but they’re moving quickly. Price action is as expected Friday. This...
A.M. Update
Markets are moving on Iran war headlines. Saturday night President Trump posted, The problem? Iran let everyone know that if...
Afternoon Update: Tech on the Precipice
3C led mega caps lower. Mega Caps’ relative weakness is pronounced on follow-through to the downside after a decisive break...
Market Update – Mega Caps Follow-Through to Downside
There was a flurry of fairly broad buying activity shortly after the open with as many as eight S&P 500...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.25% as the stock market is on track for its 4th weekly loss. $5.7 trillion notional...
Hawkish Central Banks, Energy Shock, Synchronized Tops, Mega Caps Crack
I’ve got a bunch to unpack and share with you. It doesn’t all snap together into one neat, cohesive big...
Intraday Update
The market is moving on what appears to be a reaction to Israel’s Prime Minister, Netanyahu, press conference comments. “Iran...
Mega-Cap Breaks Accelerate: NVDA, META, AMZN Bear Flags Snap as Iran Hits Qatar LNG & Gulf Refineries
It’s another fast moving session with headlines shifting quickly. The basis of the geopolitical backdrop: Iran retaliated for the attack...