A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.8%, having legged down from last night’s bearish consolidation. (2M) Iran followed through on its promise...
Sell-Off: Energy War Escalates, Inflation Hotter, Fed Hawkish Repricing
Tuesday’s dull, low conviction tone flipped on a dime today. Israel struck upstream Iranian energy assets ( Iran’s South Pars...
Afternoon Update
Though VIX/Volatility is higher, there’s a little bit of relative weakness in VIX. It has been there all day....
Powell Update: Hawkish Leaning
Powell noted that higher inflation is now expected in 2026, but that is not solely due to the recent surge...
fOMC Policy Statement/SEP
Fed Funds Rate Unchanged in 11:1 vote. Miran dissents again in favor of a rate cut. Fed Projects (1) 25...
Escalation Ahead of the FOMC
Tuesday’s brief geopolitical calm evaporated quickly. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran was set to become the largest oil supply disruption...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down 0.5% as WTI Crude oil futures are up +1.5% to $97 after the U.S./Israeli coalition struck...
Low-Conviction Bounce Ahead of Fed
Yesterday was full-on, as contradicting headlines came in fast and furious. Today was more like watching paint dry, literally combining...
Afernoon Update
3C is a touch stronger across volatility assets, with a pick up into the close. None really jump off the...
Market Update – Dull Pre-FOMC Trade
Participation is broad, though stocks faded from early gains. As we saw yesterday, stocks’ correlation with crude oil is starting...
A.M. Update
S&P Futures are up 0.25% as WTI crude oil are up 1.6% ($94.96), but off overnight highs. Bloomberg reports that Iran...
Short Nasdaq, Long Vol/Crude, and Waiting for the Next Twist in the Lion-Pangolin Standoff
I’ve never had s much background work to do. Developments happen so fast, I have to check, recheck, write, rewrite...
Afternoon Update
Gold is holding around $5k. Gold Miners are showing a hint of relative strength, which we haven’t seen recently. It’s...
Relief Rally: Low Conviction
The familiar weekend pattern (U.S./Israel attack Kharg Island ~90% of Iranian exports) after the market close Friday, then jawbone crude...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are up +0.9%, driven by tentative hopes of oil flowing after numerous comments that the Trump administration plans...
Afternoon Update – Escalation, But What?
Not too much has changed from my lasty update, but it appears several assets are reflecting uncertainty and concern, and...
Escalation: Boots on the Ground?
The stock market opened to broad gains, reclaiming a meaningful chunk of yesterday’s weakness, though they are off of their...
A.M. Update
Index futures are up 0.5 percent pretty much across the board, very typical of one day oversold internals. WTI Crude...
Crude Oil Continues Driving Equities; Mega Cap’s Safe Haven Status May Have Cracked
I’ve seen the synchronistic prescience of price action almost every week for a couple of decades, but it still fascinates...
Afternoon update: Yields Sharply Higher with Oil
Not the prettiest day for stocks as higher oil prices, yields and dollar weigh on prices, but also the mega...