Sell the News in Semis, Surging Oil & Rising Yields as Geopolitical Risk Flares Up
Monday’s AI/Semi/Tech rally didn’t look well supported by any means, whether 3C, intraday price action, or inside days on the...
Afternoon Update
Just a few charts… SPY (2M) it looks like the oversold bounce off SPX’s H&S neckline has put in its...
Intraday Update – U.S. Treasury Amends Iranian Oil Sanction Waivers. Crude High of the Day
There’s been a rapid-fire spurt of headlines this afternoon from the U.S. Treasury, revoking a license and issuing another. It’s...
Market Update
Concentrated positioning and extreme leverage in semis is taking its toll as Semis are down big. Samsung’s blowout profits failed...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.15%, weighed on by Tech and Nasdaq-100 futures (-1%) after Samsung’s blowout earnings weren’t up to...
Tech & Semis Bounce Off 50-Day After Sharp Selloff, But Conviction Remains Low
In my view, today wasn’t a meaningful, trend-altering day, it was mostly just technical factors at play. Several times at...
Market Update
*First off, apologies for the delayed post. I’ve been fighting with an unknown, suddenly introduced browser extension that keeps erasing...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are up +0.4% as semiconductor stocks look to rebound from a shaky week. We’ll get an update on...
Afternoon Update – Odds & Ends
The bulk of my analytical work was done last week and a few more very long days this week. Now...
Intraday Update – Market Looking For an Intraday Low
I think there’s still a desire to close the market out in to the holiday weekend with the best face...
Semis Hammered
Everything got off to a decent start with a weak Payrolls report sending the Dollar and rates lower, but Chipmakers...
A.M. Update – Payrolls Miss
It’s almost as if gold knew the way it came into the Payrolls report with clear bullish tone. S&P futures...
Tuesday’s Thesis Meets Wednesday’s Reality: Meta Signals AI Capex Inflection
Given the gist of Tuesday’s Wrap: “While it’s hard to argue the point when hyperscalers were sinking in June and...
The Crack in Semis Arrives As Meta Looks To Monetize Excess Compute
The big news today is that Meta is building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute capacity to third...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.25% and Nasdaq-100 down -0.85% as Bloomberg reports, Meta, which has been rushing to secure expensive...
That Didn’t Take Long
That didn’t take long. I was watching for the S&P 500 and NDX to fill their gaps from last Tuesday...
Forgot to Attach these Charts
It’s a little ironic that on a day that Tech is single-handedly propping up the market and filling the SPX/NDX...
Market Update – Still on Track: SPX/NDX Gaps Being Filled
We’re on track for the week’s forecast as the cap-weighted averages fill their gaps down from a week ago. Index...
A.M. Update
Index futures gave up modest gains and sit either flat or with modest losses (NQ -0.1%, RTY -0.15%). The retreat...
Textbook H&S Behavior: Mega Caps Lead Relief Rally Into Freedom 250 Week. Markets Behaving as Forecast.
The market kicked off the holiday-shortened week pretty much as forecast from the end of last week. The major averages...