Neckline Backtests and Whimper Rallies: Markets Tracking the Forecast
The rotation that began late last week, favoring mega caps over semiconductors after the former sharply underperformed for most of...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are +0.8% to start the holiday-abbreviated week as tech stocks advance in the premarket after a volatile previous...
Stocks on track for lower finish ahead of holiday-abbreviated week: The Big Picture Takeaway
The KOPSI warned semiconductor volatility was coming last night. The “spenders vs. receivers” divergence is sharpening, and the market is...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.6% and Nasdaq-100 futures are down -1.45% after chip stocks sold off overnight on the KOPSI...
Micron Crushed It! Hyperscalers Got Crushed!
Thursday’s session was dominated by Micron-mania, with the memory-chip maker delivering volatile and explosive price after earnings beat on AI-driven...
Not So Impressive
The major averages opened firmly higher following Micron’s (MU+15.6%) stellar beat-and-raise earnings report, which initially sent the Philly Semiconductor Index more than...
A.M. Update
Index futures are little changed since last night. S&P are up +0.8% and Nasdaq +2.3% after Micron’s blowout earnings. Semis...
Placeholder Day Ahead of Micron & Core PCE: Hyperscalers Weaken and Prices Meet Necklines
Today turned out mostly as expected… a placeholder day ahead of Micron earnings and Thursday morning’s core-PCE (Fed’s favored inflation...
Afternoon Update
Well, would you look at that! The S&P-500 (10M) Tags the neckline that I sketched in on May 26th. As...
Holding Pattern Day: Downward Bias Clearly Focused on Tech Leaders
After a nearly +5% pre-market gain, the early buy-the-dip enthusiasm across semiconductor names has waned substantially. SOX (-1%) needs to...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are up +0.2% and Nasdaq up +0.35%. The KOPSI (+3.25%) retraced about 20% of its losses to form...
Monday’s 3C Divergence Wasn’t Random. It Was the Leak Before the -10% KOSPI Crash. Somebody Knew.
When 3C picked up on something happening with Semiconductors Monday afternoon, I thought it was really interesting and out of...
SPY Getting Uglier
Over the last 20 minutes or so, SPY’s 3C has been nosediving. SPY (1M) Looks like it wants to head...
AI Cost Concerns Back in Focus
A Chosun Biz article reported that SK Hynix is slowing the ramp-up of HBM4 (next-generation high-bandwidth memory for AI, particularly...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -1.4% and Nasdaq-100 down -3%. Memory names such as Micron (MU -9.4%), which reports earnings after the...
Mixed Start to the Week: Mega-Cap Weakness Offsets Iran Deal Tailwinds as Yields Rise Again
The major averages opened this full trading week (sandwiched between two holiday-shortened ones) mostly lower, as tailwinds from the U.S.-Iran...
Afternoon Update
This is a quick, but meaningful observation. The major averages are near session lows, as yields are near or at...
Semi 3C Update
There’s some interesting activity on Semis 3C charts. I’ll let them speak for themselves… SMH (1m) This chart caught my...
Mostly Mixed and Little Changed: Semis Provide Support, While Mega Caps Drag on the Market, And Yields Trend Higher
Continued mega cap weakness overshadows broader market participation. In the meantime, yields are quietly creeping higher after having held key...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are flat after the holiday weekend. Semiconductors are higher, while Magnificent 7 stocks were mostly weaker (especially TSLA...