TACO- Separating Signal From Noise
I’m not sure how much signal we can separate from the tape-bomb noise, but here’s the day in a nutshell:...
Tape Bombs
President Trump said that the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and the entire Arctic region has...
Greenland Relief Rally Fades: Trump Rules Out Force, But Tariffs Loom as Wildcard – Equities Bounce, Then Stall
Equities staged a broad-based rebound (oversold-like bounce) after President Trump’s World Economic Forum address at Davos, stated the U.S. will...
A.M. Update
Equity futures (-0.1% to -0.3%) gave up overnight gains and trade moderately lower this morning with President Trump’s speech at...
Pre-Existing Technical Cracks & Accelerating Geopolitical/Structural Uncertainty in 2026
It’s tempting to quickly blame today’s volatility purely on headline jitters—Trump’s Greenland tariff threats reigniting trade-war fears, but Japanese bond...
Afternoon Update
NDX is at its 100-day, still a ways to go to reach the neckline. Mega Caps have been notably weak...
Market Update
2025 went hard, but 2026 is sprinting straight into “hold my beer” territory as flashes of uncertainty lean toward flashes...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -1.5%, Nasdaq-100 -1.8% and Russell 2000 -1.8% as markets fixate on President Trump’s escalating Greenland demands...
Martin Luther Holiday Brief
Caution and a healthy dose of skepticism are warranted when viewing futures price action outside normal cash market hours (especially...
Afternoon Update
Markets have drifted sideways all afternoon with the majors virtually unchanged on the day in what appears to be classic...
Mixed Op-Ex Price Action Keeps Averages Flat, USD/JPY and 10-Yr Yield At Interesting Levels
Mega Caps and Semis led pre-market gains. MAGS faded the entire gain to trade lower shortly after the cah open....
A.M. Update
S&P futures are up +0.15%, receiving a boost from the mega-cap cohort. The market is receiving a batch of earnings...
Tech’s Early Surge Fades, Small Caps Dominate, Carry Trade Questions
The stock market delivered a mixed but ultimately positive session, with broad-based gains led by Tech after TSMC‘s strong earnings...
Afternoon Update
S&P and Nasdaq faded gains this afternoon. While some of the afternoon weakness can be attributed to the Financials, the...
Intraday Update – Tech’s 3C bear flag breaks
I highlighted the bear flag in 3C yesterday afternoon, last night and in the last update. XLK (1m) Update on...
Chips Lead, Small Caps and High BetaSurge, Mega Caps Unimpressive – Carry Flag Tightens
*If you missed yesterday’s daily wrap titled, The Yen Carry Trade Hypothesis: Testing the Engine Behind 2026’s Procyclical Surge and...
A.M. Update
S&P Futures are up 0.4%, led by a bounce in Tech with chipmakers advancing in the premarket after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM +5.4%)...
The Yen Carry Trade Hypothesis: Testing the Engine Behind 2026’s Procyclical Surge and Defensive Squeeze
Today’s market action extended yesterday’s rotating roller coaster, with ongoing geopolitical developments and fundamentals driving the volatility, that volatility itself...
Afternoon Update
The Nasdaq-100 (epicenter of today’s weakness) found some technical support at the 50-day SMa after a -1.85% decline. The 50-day...
Market Update – Defensive Bias & Mega Cap Weakness
An uneventful round of economic releases (including recent CPI & PPI confirming disinflation but not sparking aggressive rate-cut bets) and...