A.M. Update
S&P futures are up +0.85% to start this holiday shortened week. Bloomberg reported yesterday that President Trump said Iran “gave”...
Afternoon Update
Not much has changed. I thought we might get some short covering that lifts the averages off session lows. I...
Intraday Update
Just checking in and letting you know, yes, underlying trade (3C) is as ugly a price action suggests. Volatility is...
Market Update – Crude Up, Mega Caps & software Down, BTC In Dangerous Area
The war in Iran remains devoid of a clear de escalation path, and crude oil is currently up +4.35% at...
A.M. Update
Nothing on the geopolitical front has calmed down since President Trump’s announcement of a 10-day pause, starting with the 10-day...
Risk-Off Rotation: Oil and Yields Rise as Mega Caps Break Down Amid Iran Deadline Drama
After 1-day overbought internals Wednesday, Thursday turned increasingly risk off as Oil prices and Yields rose. The Equity/Oil correlation not...
Afternoon Update – Not Looking Good, But Moving As Expected
It’s stressful to collect charts like the NDX below this near to the close. A lot can happen in the...
VXX’s Short-Term 3C Change in Character
With a ground invasion of Iran looking more and more likely; WTI up +4.5% to $94.35/bbl (above $92 local resistance),...
Mega Caps Lead Lower As Crude And Rates Move Higher
After posting 1-day overbought internals, the major averages are lower across the board, featuring weak performance from Mega Caps and...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.8% as oil prices climb and yields rise. Iran continues to attack energy infrastructure sites in...
Daily Wrap – Conditions Deteriorating;
Optimism surrounding reports of a U.S. peace proposal to Iran lingered, driving broad-based gains, though. stocks finished off their best...
Afternoon Update – Second Order Effect Fertilizer Plays
I’m looking seriously at adding some second/third order effect plays from the war to potentially benefit from reduced fertilizer exports...
Intraday Update: Knee Jerk on News
The latest to modestly move markets… IRAN FM ABBAS ARAQCHI SAYS ENEMY FAILED TO DIVIDE COUNTRY OR SECURE QUICK VICTORY...
Market Update: Iran Claps Back with Trump-Style, Maximalist Demands. Seems Boots in the Sand is an Increasingly Likely Escalation
I’ll keep this brief given how fluid the situation remains, but I want to establish a clear baseline so we...
A.M. Update
We’re pretty much in the same place as last night: S&P futures +0.8%, WTI crude -5% to $87.60, except Iran...
Tape Bombs, Ceasefire Hopes, Mega Cap Weakness, & Emerging Private Credit Stress
The first half of the day was fairly quiet, then a cornucopia of tape bombs hit, culminating after the close...
Afternoon Update
President Trump kept talking about a big gift that the Iranians gave “us”, but says that he won’t say what...
WTI Knife Fight at $92; New Barrage of Trump “Negotiating Talks”
I’m watching this former support level closely as WTI tried to regain $92 (former support) after testing it at least...
Mega Caps Lag; Private Credit Funds Gating Investors
Iran launched multiple waves of missiles (at least eight overnight) targeting Israel, including Tel Aviv, Eilat, and the Dimona area....
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.5%. The ceasefire talks, talk, hasn’t gained any new or substantive traction. The Wall Street Journal reports...