Trump TACOs on Iran Ultimatum; 5-Day Pause Announced as Markets Bounce With Little Conviction
Today ranks among the top-3 most chaotic days of the war from a news perspective. President Trump’s Saturday night, 48-hour...
Afternoon Update
There’s a lot of craziness and confusion on the geopolitical front. On the technical front, today is proceeding like a...
Headline Ping Pong Sows Chaos; The Price Trend Is As Expected.
I’ll try to keep developments as current as possible, but they’re moving quickly. Price action is as expected Friday. This...
A.M. Update
Markets are moving on Iran war headlines. Saturday night President Trump posted, The problem? Iran let everyone know that if...
Afternoon Update: Tech on the Precipice
3C led mega caps lower. Mega Caps’ relative weakness is pronounced on follow-through to the downside after a decisive break...
Market Update – Mega Caps Follow-Through to Downside
There was a flurry of fairly broad buying activity shortly after the open with as many as eight S&P 500...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.25% as the stock market is on track for its 4th weekly loss. $5.7 trillion notional...
Hawkish Central Banks, Energy Shock, Synchronized Tops, Mega Caps Crack
I’ve got a bunch to unpack and share with you. It doesn’t all snap together into one neat, cohesive big...
Intraday Update
The market is moving on what appears to be a reaction to Israel’s Prime Minister, Netanyahu, press conference comments. “Iran...
Mega-Cap Breaks Accelerate: NVDA, META, AMZN Bear Flags Snap as Iran Hits Qatar LNG & Gulf Refineries
It’s another fast moving session with headlines shifting quickly. The basis of the geopolitical backdrop: Iran retaliated for the attack...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down -0.8%, having legged down from last night’s bearish consolidation. (2M) Iran followed through on its promise...
Sell-Off: Energy War Escalates, Inflation Hotter, Fed Hawkish Repricing
Tuesday’s dull, low conviction tone flipped on a dime today. Israel struck upstream Iranian energy assets ( Iran’s South Pars...
Afternoon Update
Though VIX/Volatility is higher, there’s a little bit of relative weakness in VIX. It has been there all day....
Powell Update: Hawkish Leaning
Powell noted that higher inflation is now expected in 2026, but that is not solely due to the recent surge...
fOMC Policy Statement/SEP
Fed Funds Rate Unchanged in 11:1 vote. Miran dissents again in favor of a rate cut. Fed Projects (1) 25...
Escalation Ahead of the FOMC
Tuesday’s brief geopolitical calm evaporated quickly. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran was set to become the largest oil supply disruption...
A.M. Update
S&P futures are down 0.5% as WTI Crude oil futures are up +1.5% to $97 after the U.S./Israeli coalition struck...
Low-Conviction Bounce Ahead of Fed
Yesterday was full-on, as contradicting headlines came in fast and furious. Today was more like watching paint dry, literally combining...
Afernoon Update
3C is a touch stronger across volatility assets, with a pick up into the close. None really jump off the...
Market Update – Dull Pre-FOMC Trade
Participation is broad, though stocks faded from early gains. As we saw yesterday, stocks’ correlation with crude oil is starting...